2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Dane Swan

Name: Dane Swan
Club: Collingwood
2009 Brownlow Performance: Equal 10th
Total Votes: 12
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
2, 1, 4
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: 7-10.
Brownlow Odds: $13 (Courtesy of TAB)

Swan was an absolute ball magnet last year, dead set you wouldn't blame the man had he got leather poisoning. He was racking up possessions at will to such an extent that people starting judging his game by the amount of possies he had.

If anything, Swan is a prime example to any punter out there that may be under the belief that the amount of possessions a player gets will therefore correlate to Brownlow votes. Because quite simply, this isn't necessarily the case. I am a big believer that umpires favour those midfielders whose strength in their game is the ability to get their own contested footy and create the play. If you look at the amount of possessions Swan gathered, in relation to the amount of those that were contested, you'll see he falls under that bracket of players I like to call 'link men receivers'. Out of the total 700 possessions he racked up - the best of any player - only 227 of those were contested. This means that only 32.42% of his possessions were contested, whilst 67.58% were uncontested.

The interesting thing though, is that Ablett didn't fair much better for this statistic, and yet he won the Brownlow medal. So what gives? The way i see it, i consider Ablett more of a playmaker whose possessions directly influence games, thereby catching the eye of the umps. On the other hand, I classify Swan to be more of a linkman who is usually the second or third link in a string of play that involves the ball being passed to multiple players before the last player in that link creates the play and either sets up a goal or has a forward 50 entry. Thus, so whilst Swan racks up a ton of possessions, he is seen by the umpire as a linkman rather than a playmaker and therefore fails to impress the men in white.

That's my personal explanation, but hey you may hold differing opinions. Although, based on this theory, I called it last year that Swan would fail to make the top 5 in the Brownlow, let alone win it. People scoffed at me, but i was right. So unless Swan alters his game somewhat to mirror that of say an Ablett, or Judd, who make every one of their possessions count, his 700 possessions a season will amount to nothing come Brownlow night. But until then, i'm not convinced.

2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Lenny Hayes

Name: Lenny Hayes
Club: St. Kilda
2009 Brownlow Performance: 3rd
Total Votes: 20
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
6, 0, 2
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: 1-4
Brownlow Odds: $21 (Courtesy of TAB)

Lenny's performance at the Brownlow in 2009 was nothing less than outstanding. Leading up to the Brownlow, nearly every betting agency didn't give Hayes a look in at winning the medal, let alone having a chance at being St. Kilda's highest poller, with odds of $8.00 being bandied about for him to top the votes. Believe it or not he was fifth favorite in that particular market, behind the likes of Dal Santo, Montagna, Goddard, and Riewoldt - all despite the fact that he received the most votes for the Saints in 2008. It was absolutely ridiculous! I must admit, much of the money i made last year on the Brownlow can be attributed to this bloke and the sheer craziness of the bookies that were offering the juicy odds. Incorporating his $8.00 into a few 8 leg multis and watching them get up, made me one happy man that night.

You may have noticed i've placed him within the prediction bracket of 1-4. The fact is, he is one player other than Ablett who i truly believe can win it outright, although with rumours circulating early on in the Pre-Season that he may have sustained 'hot spots' in his foot, it doesn't exactly fill you with confidence that he'll be able to play out the season. Whilst the Saints' coaching staff have assured us that he was only suffering from a strained calf, you still must wonder where these rumours came from and if they had any merit.

If the man to beat in Ablett sustains an injury, or experiences a sudden drop in form, and Lenny is able to carry over his form of last season into this one, sans injury, then i'd rate him a very solid chance. But given his injury history, particularly in the past 3 seasons, i'd say injury (rather than form) would be his only downfall if he were to miss out again in 2010.

But the thing to love about Lenny is he is ultra consistent, and can individually tear a game apart when it's in the balance - moreso than Dal Santo or Montagna, IMHO. His last quarter performance in the GF last year is testament to that. The problem is, many got caught up in the media hype surrounding both of the aforementioned players, allowing Hayes to be overshadowed. But if his form between rounds 5-11 indicate anything, it's that when he's hot the umpires take note. Over the course of those 7 rounds, he was BOG in 5 of them, and scored a massive 16 votes out of a possible 21 (R6 he failed to register a vote, and R9 he only received 1 vote). Also keep in mind Hayes received the second most 3 vote games, 6 in total, behind Ablett with 8. It's this form that i believe can take him all the way to winning a Brownlow medal in the near future.

Personally, he's one i'll be keeping a close eye on throughout the 2010 season, and i'm sure the bookies will as well on the back of their blunder in underestimating him last season.

2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Joel Selwood

Name: Joel Selwood
Club: Geelong
2009 Brownlow Performance: 8th
Total Votes: 16
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
3, 2, 3
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: 3-4 **SMOKEY ALERT**
Brownlow Odds: $17 (Courtesy of TAB)

I must admit, that despite being a massive Carlton fan, for me Selwood is one of those opposition players that you can't help but have a softspot for. To put it simply, i reckon he is currently one of the classiest young footballers to play the game, and with the no-nonsense way he goes about his footy, how can you not jump on board the Selwood express?!

One of the most pleasing aspects of his game is his sheer hardness for the ball, which was demonstrated quite comprehensively last year with his ferocious tackling; having laid a massive 118 tackles for the season, at an average of 4.7 a game! But the most important stat associated with this is the fact he received 59 free kicks as reward for his tireless efforts - ranking number 1 in the league for Free Kicks For. Having taken that stat into account you would have assumed Selwood also topped the table in Tackles, as these two stats would virtually go hand in hand, yeah? However, to much surprise he actually finished 12th in tackles, which indicates to me that the umpires are devoting close attention to Selwood's game and are rewarding his style of play. As a result, there is every chance he would quite easily stick in their minds post-match when they are writing up their respective Brownlow votes.

Based upon this factor alone, if Selwood can take develop his game even further i believe that Selwood is every chance of winning the Brownlow in 2010. But of course there remains one thing that stands in his path: G. Ablett.

If you compare both Ablett and Selwood, Ablett had him covered for nearly each game they played in concurrently. The most comprehensive stat of all is the fact that in the first 6 rounds Selwood failed to score a solitary vote, whereas Ablett scored 12. But that doesn't paint the entire picture, as some would've judged it a little harsh that Selwood didn't score (particularly in Rounds 4-6), given that he didn't have such a bad start to the season. The simple fact was Ablett just had a herculean first few rounds.

However, on the other side of things, in 2 of the 3 games that Ablett missed, Selwood received 1 and 3 votes in the respective matches. This loosely suggests that he is one of the few players the umpires are willing to give their votes to in the absence of Gazza. If Ablett wasn't playing in the same team as Selwood, i'd say he would have a greater chance at winning the medal. So perhaps if it's not his year this year, then perhaps, it'll be in the next couple if Gary does decide to take up the tantalizing Gold Coast offer. ;)

But still, don't discount Selwood, as he reminds me of a young Judd in his first few years when many doubted if it was at all possible he could get any better than what he was. Personally, he was a smokey of mine last year, and he is once again for 2010.

2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Chris Judd

Name: Chris Judd
Club: Carlton
2009 Brownlow Performance: 2nd
Total Votes: 22
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
5, 2, 3
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: 2-3
Brownlow Odds: $13 (Courtesy of TAB)

With Juddy facing a short stint on the sidelines for the first 3 rounds of the season, the silky skilled baldnut faces quite the battle if he is to make up ground and steal the Charlie away from Ablett's grasp in 2010. However, all is not lost, given just last year Ablett silenced critics by taking out the medal despite having missed 3 games through injury. And if one man was to replicate that feat it'd no doubt be the Juddernaut.

In 2009 Judd statistically had the best season of his career, playing all 23 games, which includes Carlton's elimination final against the Lions. He amassed an average of 26.5 disposals, topping his previous best of 25.9 in 2006. Although, one aspect of his game that has dropped since crossing from the Eagles to Carlton and one that he is yet to improve, is the number of goals he kicks. During his time with West Coast, he maintained an average of 1.0 goal per game, however he has only clocked up an average of 0.7 and 0.5 in his 2 years at Carlton. When questioned with how Carlton is going to kick goals in the absence of Fev, Ratten has stated numerous times during the pre-season that Judd may be used down forward - ala. the one G. Ablett - rather than having to take him off for a rest. (Source: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/chris-judd-forward-if-midfield-fires/story-e6frf9jf-1225830260373)

If the injection of Mclean into the Carlton midfield, alongside the talented Gibbs and Murphy, can further bolster the onballer brigrade early on in the season, then expect to see Juddy thrown forward to kick a few classy goals. And if Judd can incorporate this aspect of the game into his bag of tricks, then the umps will be queuing up to give him their votes.

In summary, don't be fooled by the fact he'll be out for the first 3. Does anyone else fondly remember his injury riddled 2007 where he played 19 games, and yet polled 16 votes in the first 8 games?

3

2

2

3

1

1

1

3

This is one bloke you simply cannot underestimate.

2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Sam Mitchell

Name: Sam Mitchell
Club: Hawthorn
2009 Brownlow Performance: Equal 13th
Total Votes: 13
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
2, 2, 3
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: Top 5
Brownlow Odds: $13 (Courtesy of TAB)

The Hawks captain ended up level on votes with his Hawks com-padre Sewell, along with Bartel, Montagna, Pendlebury, and Vince. So whilst it looks as though he finished way back in the pack, he did however share 13th possie alongside pretty decent company. And given he was the Hawks' equal top vote getter for 2009 - with Hodge the next best on 7 - one could suggest that if the Hawks can replicate their form of 2008, Mitchell and Sewell will be the two players the umps will give their votes to, with both Mitchell and Sewell having finished in the top 3 votegetters for that season as well.

So what of Sammy's 2009 season?

I don't think he did much wrong, particularly in the early part of the season, which is justified by the 7 votes he scored within the first 5 rounds. Statistically he had a better season than 2008, averaging 29.7 disposals, compared to 27.8, so you'd have thought he would've performed better at the Brownlow and perhaps built upon the 15 votes he scored in the year previous.

One possible explanation for this is by looking at the Hawks' season, and noting the correlation between those matches the Hawks won and those in which Mitchell was awarded votes. Hawthorn ended up winning a total of 9 matches, and in 5 of those Mitchell was given votes - meaning for each match the Hawks won, he had over a 50% chance of receiving a vote. This shows a small correlation, which is nothing to hang your hat on, but it suggests that if the Hawks had won a similar number of matches to that of 2008, Mitchell quite possibly could have finished within the top 4.

I have a feeling the Hawks will come out firing on the back of a disappointing year, and Sammy will be the one leading the charge. Opposition teams found out last season that Sewell can be just as damaging as Mitchell, so perhaps they will instead throw their best tagger on him at different stages throughout a game, allowing Mitchell some space. If so, watch him tear season 2010 apart, because he is clearly in Hawthorn's top 2 players.

2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Gary Ablett

Name: Gary Ablett
Club: Geelong
2009 Brownlow Performance: 2009 Brownlow Medallist
Total Votes: 30
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
8, 1, 4
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: 1-2
Brownlow Odds: $6 Favourite. (Courtesy of TAB)

Not much wrong can be said about little Gazza leading into Season 2010. He finally acquired the medal that for so long evaded him, and was by far the best player of 2009, but the question is, can he go back to back? Quite simply, yes.

Pros:

The little baldnut tore nearly every opposition team to shreds throughout the season, but what is most striking about his season last year was his start to the year. In the first 5 rounds he received 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, for a total of 12 votes! That means he scored 40% of his total votes in the first 5 rounds of the season! Graaaaavy. It was these early games that set him up for the win quite early on, and the massive vote margin that it created between himself and those that trailed him meant other players could do very little to try and make up ground later on in the count. Furthermore, the 6 votes he received in the last 3 games were really the icing on the cake, and that which put the win beyond doubt.

Not much more can be said apart from the fact the man is a FREAK. Also note how he had the most 3 vote games out of any player (8, in front of Hayes with 6). To put it simply: when he turns it on, he turns on the umpires. If he has a pearler first few games, akin to that of last year, all I can say is get on the YAAAABBLETT train because it’s going to be one hell of a smooth ride.

Cons:

There is very little criticism that you can say about Ablett, but I’ll try and find a couple of decent points in an attempt to provide you with some neutral perspective.

Hmmm… let me see… oh, yeah, injuries. Keep a close eye on any niggling injuries that may hamper him throughout the season. When he did his groin last year (…or is it when Lauren Phillips did it; lucky bastard he is…) there was intense talk last year of the possibility that the injury may again derail his Brownlow chances like in 2008 - when he was the hot favourite to take it out. Luckily he had an awesome start and finish to the season to really consolidate his Brownlow win. Alas, injuries are one of the few factors that may determine whether he goes back to back in 2010.

Compare, Select, and Save... (Oh, and Win More!)

It's common practice to compare the difference in odds offered by the many betting agencies out there, and moreso if you're going to have a dabble in the Brownlow market prior to the season starting. So for those long term Brownlow bets, you'd want to be getting the biggest bang for your buck when you invest your hard earned on a particular player/s.

To demonstrate the type of value that is on offer, i'll compare player odds using the TAB and Sportsbet as two examples.

Gary Ablett. TAB - $7.00 Sportsbet - $6.00

Chris Judd. TAB - $13.00 Sportsbet - $12.00

Sam Mitchell TAB - $13.00 Sportsbet - $26.00

Lenny Hayes. TAB - $21.00 Sportsbet - $17.00

Adam Goodes TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $21.00

Simon Black TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $21.00

Joel Selwood TAB - $17.00 Sportsbet - $21.00

Lance Franklin TAB - $34.00 Sportsbet - $26.00

Jonathan Brown TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $26.00

Nick Riewoldt TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $26.00

Matthew Pavlich TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $34.00

Dane Swan TAB - $13.00 Sportsbet - $34.00

Marc Murphy TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $34.00

Bernie Vince TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $34.00

Adam Cooney TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $41.00

Brent Harvey TAB - $101.00 Sportsbet - $41.00

Luke Hodge TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $41.00

Bryce Gibbs TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $41.00

Nick Dal Santo TAB - $21.00 Sportsbet - $34.00

So there we have it folks! It looks as though the TAB are offering the longest odds out of the two agencies for 12 out of the 19 early punting faves. Not bad! If you're a punter who simply looks to have a 'value bet' prior to the start of the season, there are a fair few players to consider. Most surprisingly, the player with the biggest value margin is Harvey with a $60 gap in odds. Fair value, but i think it's safe to say the veteran has a very slim chance of even making the top 3, let alone win it.

For me, the greatest value out of the top 19 (also factoring in each players potential to win outright) would lie in any of (but not confined to) Mitchell, Hayes, Goodes, Black, Selwood, Murphy, and Dal Santo.

You'll notice i didn't include Swan in that group of players - who has a $21 difference in odds when comparing the two agencies. Sure he may represent great value, but personally, i don't think Swan has what it takes to win the Charlie yet. Last season people called me crazy when i stated Swan wouldn't finish in the top 5, and as it turned out he didn't even finish in the top 10. One of my theories which i applied to Swan last season is that the number of possessions a player gets doesn't necessarily equate to Brownlow votes, and nor does playing as an outside receiver. I'll expand upon my thoughts on Swan in further depth when i analyse a few players individually in the coming months.

In summary, just remember value exists out there, so if you've got your heart set on a particular player, i recommend scouring the different betting agencies and comparing the odds they offer.

After all... you'd be "Socking Staker" to go about Brownlow betting any other way. ;)

Oh, and Happy New Year for 2010!