Well, the odds for the 2010 Brownlow Medal have been released and it doesn't look as though it features any real surprises. Gary Ablett is of course the firm favourite at $7, ahead of Judd $11, and last seasons bolter (and very underrated) Hayes at $14.Most notably Ablett has drawn shorter odds than last year, when he started the season at $11 favourite. My early thoughts are he might be too short at this stage, and there may be a slight chance his odds will inflate a tad more during the season. But if he starts the season like he did last season, watch his odds quickly diminish. In my eyes he is my personal favourite to take out the Charlie in 2010, and don't see any reason as to why his performances will dip, barring any further injuries. RIGHTFULLY FAV, BUT HARD TO GAUGE IF HIS ODDS WILL INFLATE.
Judd is of course the second favourite, for the second season in a row. If i recall he started at $10 last season, and considering he is going to miss the first 3 rounds of the 2010 season, he is way too short to back at this stage at $11. From the get go he is going to have to play catchup in order to take out the medal in 2010. With this in mind, his odds will most certainly inflate between Rounds 1 - 3 when he is on the sidelines. But don't discount Judd, he is Chris Judd afterall and if he has an even better season than 2009, watch out! POTENTIAL, BUT TOO SHORT AT THIS STAGE. ODDS WILL GROW.
Hayes is one i tipped to be the big smokie at the 2009 Brownlow and was shocked he was somewhat ignored by the bookies right up until the count. If you're after value Hayes is certainly one to look at, and don't be fooled by the fact the media allow Montagna and Dal Santo to overshadow him. He's a gun in and under player, and had the Norm Smith won at half time had Chapman not stepped up. VALUE PICK
Selwood is another to keep an eye on. I placed a smallish bet on him during the pre-season in 09, as his form was simply outstanding. Started at about $15 last season, so he offers small value here at $21. Ablett will always steal votes from him, but was clearly Geelong's second best player last season finishing 8th in the count with 16 votes. If Ablett has an extended stay on the sidelines, or unexpected form drop expect Selwood to receive the votes particularly if lord forbid he takes his game to yet another level. VALUE PICK
Of the other value picks, look out for the Carlton youngsters in Murphy and Gibbs. I got laughed at for placing a $5 free bet on Gibbs before the start of last season at odds of $126, but his value shone through in the end receiving 15 votes and finishing 9th, suggesting this kid has the potential to win the Charlie in the near future. For 2010 he starts at significantly shorter odds of $41 alongside the likes of Coon Dog, Hodge, and Dal Santo; which just shows the bookies are starting to realize his potential. Confident he can win it in the coming years, and is more likely a smokey for top 5 in 2010. TOP 5 POTENTIAL
Marc Murphy is one i will be keeping my eye on, after having an awesome season and finishing with 15 votes alongside Gibbsy. I have a feeling this bloke will step up, particularly in the absence of Judd in the first 3 rounds and make a name for himself. Like Gibbs, he had three 3 vote games throughout 09, but there exists a gap after that, only receiving one 2 vote game, with the rest being 1's. Needs to take his game to yet another level if he is to take out the Charlie. According to the Herald Sun, he has been the best backed thus far, and at the very least is worth a smallish flutter at odds of $34. VALUE PICK
Also, special mention to the charitable punter that placed $10 on Richmond's new messiah in Dustin Martin at odds of 5000-1 to win $50,000. Talk about ambitious!
Here is the list...
$7 Gary Ablett.
$11 Chris Judd.
$14 Lenny Hayes.
$17 Adam Goodes.
$21 Simon Black,
Joel Selwood.
$26 Lance Franklin,
Jonathan Brown,
Nick Riewoldt.
$34 Matthew Pavlich, Dane Swan,
Marc Murphy, Bernie Vince.
$41 Adam Cooney, Brent Harvey,
Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge,
Bryce Gibbs, Nick Dal Santo.
