Fashionably Late - Round 17, 2010 Wrap - 3, 2, 1 Votes.

My post for Round 16 largely centred around Adam Goodes, and his tendency to make a late run for the Brownlow in the last few rounds of the season. Well, it appears as though another player is doing the same thing - Joel Selwood.

Selwood is a favorite of mine, and I in fact placed a bit of loose change on him during the pre-season (to win/place)- as I did last year - in hope that he would take out one of the few medals he is yet to claim, having already achieved everything else in his short career up until now. At the halfway mark of the season it looked as though he had very little chance at the Brownlow, as I only had him polling a handful of votes up until that stage of the season. But in the last 5 rounds, he has torn the competition to shreds; amassing an average 34.4 possessions, and a massive 15 tackles a game! As you'd expect, I have him grabbing votes left, right and centre according to my tally; 10 votes to be exact! (3,2,2,1,2)

That's an extraordinary run of games, and with the form he's in (plus Geelong's), there is every chance he'll finish in the top 3 and is even in with a great shot at taking it out, having trailled behind the competitions best for much of the year. But if one thing is for sure, it's that he'll be pushing the likes of Hodge, Judd and co. right up until the very last round of the count.

With 5 rounds to go, can he carry on with his rich vein of form and perhaps grab another 10 votes? Can he make the greatest of all comebacks and come from nowhere to steal the Brownlow? I know I say it all the time, but i'll say it again - it's sure going to be one hell of an exciting count this year!

St. Kilda V Hawthorn:

3. L. Hayes

2. L. Hodge

1. L. Franklin

Collingwood V Richmond:

3. A. Didak

2. S. Pendlebury

1. D. Swan

Geelong V Brisbane:

3. J. Selwood

2. G. Ablett

1. T. Varcoe

North Melbourne V Essendon:

3. J. Watson

2. A. Swallow

1. J. Winderlich

West Coast V Carlton:

3. K. Simpson

2. C. Judd

1. M. Murphy

Western Bulldogs V Fremantle:

3. A. Cooney

2. R. Griffen

1. D. Cross

Melbourne V Sydney:

3. C. Sylvia

2. B. Green

1. A. Goodes

Port Adelaide V Adelaide:

3. D. Cassisi

2. T. Chaplin

1. T. Boak 

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Round 17 Leaderboard:
22 - L. Hodge
18 - C. Judd (+)
18 - L. Hayes (+)
18 - D. Swan (+)
17 - G. Ablett (+)
16 - J. Bartel (-)
15 - A. Cooney (+)
15 - M. Barlow (-)
14 – J. Selwood (+)
14 - J. Watson (+)
14 - S. Pendlebury (+)
14 - M. Boyd (-)
14 - A. Swallow (+)
13 – A. Goodes (+)
12 - L. Montagna
11 – P. Chapman
11 - A. Sandilands
11 - N. Dal Santo
11 - B. Goddard
10 - B. Harvey
10 – D. Cross (+)

Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.

Starting to look the 'Goodes' - Round 16, 2010 Wrap - 3, 2, 1 Votes.

Adam Goodes has always been accused of being the umpire's 'love child' of seasons past when it comes to the Brownlow, but his overall form this year has been such that not even his most ardent knockers would say umpiring favouritism will help him this year.

But in the past month, as has been the case in the past couple of years, Goodes has had a complete reversal in form and is back to his scintillating best. Having struggled to obtain anything more than 23 possessions throughout the year, with minimal impact, in his past 3 matches he has averaged 24 possessions and kicked 6 goals (featuring one 33 possie, 11 marks, 3 goal game) . Much of this turnaround can be attributed to the fact that Roos has finally allowed him to run through the midfield - a position in which I believe he plays his best football.

A month ago I would have said he had little chance of maintaining his run of consecutively winning most votes at Sydney this year, but as of late i've since changed my tune. And what's scarier is he's slowly edging his way towards the top 5 on the leaderboard. But if he has any hope of catching the top echelon of players, what he needs to work in his favour is for Sydney to keep performing well in the last 6 rounds of the season, because at this stage in the count he could quite conceivably have a huge gap to bridge. 

Adelaide V Geelong:
3. B. Vince
2. J. Selwood
1. G. Johncock

Collingwood V St. Kilda:
3. D. Swan
2. A. Didak
1. L. Brown

Hawthorn V Brisbane:
3. S. Mitchell
2. L. Hodge
1. S. Burgoyne

Essendon V West Coast:
3. M. LeCras
2. M. Priddis
1. A. Hams

Western Bulldogs V Port Adelaide:
3. D. Cross
2. M. Boyd
1. J. Harbrow

Carlton V Sydney:
3. A. Goodes
2. S. Mumford
1. R. O’Keefe

Richmond V North Melbourne:
3. A. Swallow
2. L. Adams
1. D. Wells

Fremantle V Melbourne:
3. P. Duffield
2. H. Ballantyne
1. S. Hill

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Round 16 Leaderboard:
20 - L. Hodge
17 - D. Swan (+)
16 - C. Judd (-)
16 - J. Bartel
15 - L. Hayes
15 - G. Ablett
15 - M. Barlow
14 - M. Boyd (+)
12 – A. Goodes (+)
12 - S. Pendlebury
12 - A. Cooney
12 - L. Montagna
12 - A. Swallow (+)
11 – J. Selwood (+)
11 – P. Chapman
11 - A. Sandilands
11 - N. Dal Santo
11 - J. Watson
11 - B. Goddard
10 - B. Harvey

Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop. 

Champion Data: Monty for the Brownlow? - Round 15, 2010 Wrap - 3, 2, 1 Votes.

According to Champion Data, they rate Montagna as the outsider most likely to deny Ablett the chance at going back to back this year. (LINK: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/af...-1225891860494)

Given the early release of their progressive findings, I thought i'd take the opportunity to give you all a brief insight into my own personal 'prediction model' and how it differs to that used by Champion Data. I'm sure a lot of you may have differing opinions to me, but after all, in this caper, it's all about tapping into the umpires minds and attempting to think like an umpire.

Based on what they have coined a 'prediction model', their formula is both founded upon and heavily weighted towards Supercoach rankings, among a range of other varying factors. Of these others, includes the theory that umpires are more likely to favour run-and-carry type midfielders who kick long.

In comparison to Champion Data, my ever evolving model for distribruting votes is largely founded upon the theory that in-and-under/contested possession/clearance type midfielders are the sort of players that are most likely to first catch the eye of the umpiring fraternity ahead of those run-and-carry players I would otherwise term 'possession accumulators' or 'link-men'.

The classic example of this in effect is Swan's polling performance at the Brownlow last year. Now I am a fan of Swan as a player, however, his style of play is such that I don't think it does him any favours when it comes to featuring in many of the umpires votes. You'll find he is one of these 'possesion accumulators' that I talk about, who stand on the outside of stoppage packs and are used as the 'link-men' in a passage of play once the in-and-under teammate obtains possession of the ball and dishes off to them.

So I am of the belief that whilst these players may still have an influence on the game, they do so indirectly as opposed to in-and-under players who dive into the contest and directly cause a turnover/retrieve the ball from a stoppage and give their team first use of the ball in the form of a clearance. Thus, the first player to catch the umpires eye at a stoppage is the in-and-under/contested possession/clearance specialist BEFORE the run-and-carry player who is used as a link-man in driving the ball forward.

Many were convinced last year that by gathering 35+ possessions each week Swan would therefore have performed considerably well at the Brownlow. Early on for a short period last season I too thought Swan would've come close to taking home the Charlie - that is until I started to monitor his game more closely. The truth is, that while he is prone to winning his own ball at times, he gets a majority of his possessions in his team's defensive half; many of which are uncontested. I think it's this aspect of his game that may perhaps look unappealing to the umpires and - whether rightly or wrongly - translates into 'cheap possession football'.

Of the other factors that Champion Data uses in formulating their predictions - and one which I am in agreeance with them on - is the contention that the umpires are, on the whole, more favourable towards midfielers over forwards/rucks/defenders. The Brownlow is still a midfielders medal, and I don't think there are any signs indicating this will change this season.

Now Champion Data have had a somewhat decent track record, and they always provide an interesting perspective on the Brownlow, but I wouldn't say that they have been impeccable in predicting past winners. Sure, they correctly chose Bartel in 2007 and Ablett in 2009, but they failed to select Cooney outright in 2008, instead hypothesising that he'd finished 3rd. You'll notice that both Bartel and Ablett were both in the top two favourites to take out the Brownlow for their years, so CD's correct predictions aren't all that surprising, whereas Cooney was largely seen as a shock winner in 2008 - which they failed to predict like most of us.

One other glaring discrepency in their formula is the fact that they don't take into account the scoreline for each match. So, you may find that they give 3 votes to a player whose side gets smashed by 10+ goals, and wasn't otherwise as deserving of the votes ahead of a player from the opposing side who won.Hence, I wouldn't read too much into their findings, but instead urge people to use it merely as a very loose guide.

Nevertheless, I look forward to their final results come the end of the season and how it compares to mine.

If you have any theories or formulas that you adopt yourself, i'd love to hear them. Feel free to post them below.

NOTE: My computer harddrive that my phantom tally is saved on was infected with a virus last week, and thus, at the moment it lays on there dorment until I get around to transferring it across to my new harddrive. So at the moment i'll be updating the leaderboard that was posted in the previous round, and consequently it may not be as accurate given I cannot remember who lies a vote or two outside of the leaderboard I posted, which means that players may now have worked their way onto the leaderboard that I'm unaware of. I'll update these players once I retrieve my word file containing the full leaderboard. Cheers!

Port Adelaide V Collingwood:
3. D. Rodan
2. D. Swan
1. S. Pendlebury

Geelong V Hawthorn:
3. J. Bartel
2. J. Selwood
1. C. Rioli

West Coast V Adelaide:
3. S. Thompson
2. S. Goodwin
1. M. LeCras

Brisbane V St. Kilda:
3. L. Montagna
2. L. Hayes
1. S. Black

Richmond V Fremantle:
3. D. Connors
2. D. Martin
1. C. Newman

Sydney V North Melbourne:
3. A. Goodes
2. N. Malceski
1. T. Kennelly

Melbourne V Essendon:
3. B. Green
2. C. Sylvia
1. M. Jamar

Carlton V Western Bulldogs:
3. M. Boyd
2. B. Lake
1. A. Cooney

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Round 15 Leaderboard:
18 - L. Hodge
16 - C. Judd
16 - J. Bartel (+)
15 - L. Hayes (+)
15 - G. Ablett (-)
15 - M. Barlow (-)
14 - D. Swan (+)
12 - S. Pendlebury (+)
12 - A. Cooney (+)
12 - L. Montagna (+)
12 - M. Boyd 
11 – P. Chapman
11 - A. Sandilands
11 - N. Dal Santo
11 - J. Watson
11 - B. Goddard
10 - B. Harvey
9 - J. Selwood (+)
9 - J. Bolton
9 - A. Swallow 

Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.

Barlow Blow - Round 14, 2010 Wrap - 3, 2, 1 Votes.

The biggest news to come out of the weekend was the horrific leg injury that first year Brownlow fancy Michael Barlow sustained, which has effectively ended his season along with any chance he may have had at taking home the Charlie. 

After initially being promoted from the Dockers rookie list prior to Round 1, Barlow has lead from the front and taken the competition by storm, quite possibly paving the way for other AFL clubs to take a punt on more mature-age players like himself come draft time.

It truly is sad to see any player sustain such an injury, but particularly someone so early into their career after finally being given the chance to play the game they love, following several years of being overlooked in the draft. I wish him all the best for his recovery and hope he comes back and recaptures the same passion and scintillating form he has displayed in his first 14 games.

But what's equally as saddening for punters alike is that other players 'lurking in the shadows' who were previously offering value have already started to shorten in price. Among these players is Chris Judd.

Prior to Round 14, Judd's odds had plummeted to a mind-blowing $21, but following a solid performance and Barlow's unfortunate injury, he has already shortened to $13. And I assure you those odds will only get shorter as we approach the last few weeks of the season, so if you fancy Judd's chances like I do now would be the time to jump on.

Carlton V Brisbane:
3. E. Betts
2. C. Judd
1. H. Scotland

Hawthorn V Western Bulldogs:
3. S. Mitchell
2. M. Boyd
1. L. Hodge

Fremantle V Port Adelaide:
3. R. Crowley
2. R. Palmer
1. A. Sandilands

Collingwood V West Coast:
3. D. Jolly
2. D. Swan
1. S. Pendlebury

Adelaide V Essendon:
3. S. Thompson
2. K. Tippett
1. R. Douglas

Geelong V North Melbourne:
3. P. Chapman
2. J. Podsiadly
1. J. Selwood

Richmond V Sydney:
3. C. Newman
2. J. Bolton
1. J. Riewoldt

St. Kilda V Melbourne:
3. L. Montagna
2. N. Dal Santo
1. C. Jones 

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Round 14 Leaderboard
18 - L. Hodge
16 - C. Judd (+)
15 - G. Ablett
15 - M. Barlow
13 - J. Bartel
13 - L. Hayes (+)
12 - D. Swan (+)
11 – P. Chapman (+)
11 - S. Pendlebury (+)
11 - A. Sandilands (+)
11 - N. Dal Santo (+)
11 - J. Watson
11 - A. Cooney
11 - B. Goddard
10 - B. Harvey
9 - L. Montagna (+)
9 - J. Bolton
9 - M. Boyd (+)
9 - A. Swallow