Friday, January 29, 2010

2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Gary Ablett


Name:
Gary Ablett
Club: Geelong
2009 Brownlow Performance: 2009 Brownlow Medallist
Total Votes: 30
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
8, 1, 4

Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: 1-2
Brownlow Odds: $6 Favourite. (Courtesy of TAB)

Not much wrong can be said about little Gazza leading into Season 2010. He finally acquired the medal that for so long evaded him, and was by far the best player of 2009, but the question is, can he go back to back? Quite simply, yes.

Pros:

The little baldnut tore nearly every opposition team to shreds throughout the season, but what is most striking about his season last year was his start to the year. In the first 5 rounds he received 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, for a total of 12 votes! That means he scored 40% of his total votes in the first 5 rounds of the season! Graaaaavy. It was these early games that set him up for the win quite early on, and the massive vote margin that it created between himself and those that trailed him meant other players could do very little to try and make up ground later on in the count. Furthermore, the 6 votes he received in the last 3 games were really the icing on the cake, and that which put the win beyond doubt.

Not much more can be said apart from the fact the man is a FREAK. Also note how he had the most 3 vote games out of any player (8, in front of Hayes with 6). To put it simply: when he turns it on, he turns on the umpires. If he has a pearler first few games, akin to that of last year, all I can say is get on the YAAAABBLETT train because it’s going to be one hell of a smooth ride.

Cons:

There is very little criticism that you can say about Ablett, but I’ll try and find a couple of decent points in an attempt to provide you with some neutral perspective.

Hmmm… let me see… oh, yeah, injuries. Keep a close eye on any niggling injuries that may hamper him throughout the season. When he did his groin last year (…or is it when Lauren Phillips did it; lucky bastard he is…) there was intense talk last year of the possibility that the injury may again derail his Brownlow chances like in 2008 - when he was the hot favourite to take it out. Luckily he had an awesome start and finish to the season to really consolidate his Brownlow win. Alas, injuries are one of the few factors that may determine whether he goes back to back in 2010.

Friday, January 1, 2010

Compare, Select, and Save... (Oh, and Win More!)

It's common practice to compare the difference in odds offered by the many betting agencies out there, and moreso if you're going to have a dabble in the Brownlow market prior to the season starting. So for those long term Brownlow bets, you'd want to be getting the biggest bang for your buck when you invest your hard earned on a particular player/s.

To demonstrate the type of value that is on offer, i'll compare player odds using the TAB and Sportsbet as two examples.



Gary Ablett. TAB - $7.00 Sportsbet - $6.00

Chris Judd. TAB - $13.00 Sportsbet - $12.00

Sam Mitchell TAB - $13.00 Sportsbet - $26.00

Lenny Hayes. TAB - $21.00 Sportsbet - $17.00

Adam Goodes TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $21.00

Simon Black TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $21.00

Joel Selwood TAB - $17.00 Sportsbet - $21.00

Lance Franklin TAB - $34.00 Sportsbet - $26.00

Jonathan Brown TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $26.00

Nick Riewoldt TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $26.00

Matthew Pavlich TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $34.00

Dane Swan TAB - $13.00 Sportsbet - $34.00

Marc Murphy TAB - $26.00 Sportsbet - $34.00

Bernie Vince TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $34.00

Adam Cooney TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $41.00

Brent Harvey TAB - $101.00 Sportsbet - $41.00

Luke Hodge TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $41.00

Bryce Gibbs TAB - $51.00 Sportsbet - $41.00

Nick Dal Santo TAB - $21.00 Sportsbet - $34.00


So there we have it folks! It looks as though the TAB are offering the longest odds out of the two agencies for 12 out of the 19 early punting faves. Not bad! If you're a punter who simply looks to have a 'value bet' prior to the start of the season, there are a fair few players to consider. Most surprisingly, the player with the biggest value margin is Harvey with a $60 gap in odds. Fair value, but i think it's safe to say the veteran has a very slim chance of even making the top 3, let alone win it.

For me, the greatest value out of the top 19 (also factoring in each players potential to win outright) would lie in any of (but not confined to) Mitchell, Hayes, Goodes, Black, Selwood, Murphy, and Dal Santo.

You'll notice i didn't include Swan in that group of players - who has a $21 difference in odds when comparing the two agencies. Sure he may represent great value, but personally, i don't think Swan has what it takes to win the Charlie yet. Last season people called me crazy when i stated Swan wouldn't finish in the top 5, and as it turned out he didn't even finish in the top 10. One of my theories which i applied to Swan last season is that the number of possessions a player gets doesn't necessarily equate to Brownlow votes, and nor does playing as an outside receiver. I'll expand upon my thoughts on Swan in further depth when i analyse a few players individually in the coming months.

In summary, just remember value exists out there, so if you've got your heart set on a particular player, i recommend scouring the different betting agencies and comparing the odds they offer.

After all... you'd be "Socking Staker" to go about Brownlow betting any other way. ;)

Oh, and Happy New Year for 2010!