2011 Brownlow Player Preview: J. Selwood

Name: J. Selwood
Club: Geelong

2010 Brownlow Performance: Equal 4th

WTS's 2010 Pre-Season Prediction: 3-4 ✔

Total Votes: 21

Games Polled: 12

Games Played: 21

Total Votes Breakdown: 2, 5, 5

Brownlow Odds: $11 (Courtesy of TAB)

Joel Selwood. This is a bloke that has polled 58 votes out of a possible 82 games, or an average 0.71 votes a game - which happens to be the 2nd highest votes per game average behind Chris Judd. But the similarities between these two don't stop there, with some even comparing his ability to turn a game with that of a young Judd at West Coast when he won his first Brownlow at just the tender age of 21 in 2004.

So is 2011 the year Selwood justifies these comparisons by winning the Brownlow Medal in a similar vein to Judd, at 23 years of age? Well, at that sort of votes per game average I guess it's only a matter of time! So what lies in store for the season ahead?

The notable absence in Geelong's lineup this year is of course Gary Ablett, who moved to Gold Coast over the summer. Whilst devastating for Geelong as a whole, this however could be a godsend for the likes of Selwood, Bartel et. al. in that they will be the players that will be netting all of those votes that would otherwise be handed to Ablett if he were still playing down at the Cattery.

Last year Selwood had only two 3 vote games - one of which was in Round 6, which is of particular note, as this was the same game that Ablett missed through injury. Very interesting! Could this be a slight indicator of what's in store for the 'wood seller' in 2011 now that Ablett is no longer there?

It's quite a (albeit unwanted) feat to have polled in 12 games, and only finish with 21 votes - particularly when you consider that Judd also polled in 12 games and yet finished with 30 votes. That alone highlights how much of a detrimental influence Ablett was having on the polling ability of Selwood. For this reason I believe Selwood has the ability to poll much more than he did in 2010.

Let's play devils advocate for a moment and say the Gold Coast were to enter the competition a year earlier than anticipated, and Ablett up and left a year earlier. Had this happened i'd say Selwood's polling performance at the 2010 Brownlow would've been much different to what actually transpired in reality. Without Ablett there's a fair chance a vast majority of those 2 vote games Selwood polled in would've likely been 3 vote games, and likewise those 1 vote games would've been 2.

Having said that i'd say Selwood would've come much closer to winning the medal than what he did, which gives me more reason to think that he is a major chance at taking out the Charlie in 2011. Without Ablett to hold him back anything is possible, and with both the uncanny polling ability and history to rival that of Chris Judd, i'd say he's one of the major contenders for Season 2011.

**Predicted 2011 Brownlow Finish: 1st-3rd**

2011 Brownlow Player Preview: M. Boyd

Name: M. Boyd
Club: Western Bulldogs

2010 Brownlow Performance: 6th

WTS's 2010 Pre-Season Prediction: N/A

WTS's 2010 Post-Season Prediction: 9th X

Total Votes: 20

Games Polled: 9

Games Played: 20

Total Votes Breakdown: 4, 3, 2

Brownlow Odds: $21 (Courtesy of TAB)

Boyd proved to many pundits last year that he deserves to identified alongside the likes of Ablett, and Judd in being one of the premier midfielders in the game. But can he take it a step further and match their feats by winning his first Brownlow Medal in 2011?

Approaching the 2010 Brownlow Medal many were unsure as to whether or not Boyd was good enough to take out the most votes for the Western Bulldogs, particularly because he needed to outpoll that of a previous Brownlow Medallist in Adam Cooney. But as we all know, he blew everyones expectations out of the water, amassing a surprising 20 votes to finish top dog... at, well, the doggies. Ok, that was a pretty terrible attempt at a pun - i'll grab my coat...

But before I do, let me give you a run down of his performance at the 2010 Brownlow and have a look into what possibly lies ahead for Boydy in Season 2011. So just how did he topple Coondog?

Ever since Cooney won the Brownlow in 2008, the umpires have rated his performances with more critical eyes, hence the reason he has only polled a total of 11 votes over the past 2 seasons. For Boyd, on the other hand, this has meant his polling ability over the 2009-10 seasons has improved; amassing a whopping 34 votes in that time.

This vast improvement is more evident by tracing his polling performances over the past 3 seasons, where his total votes have risen from 12 (2008) to 14 (2009), and 20 (2010). Is it conceivable that he has the ability to poll more than 20 votes in 2011? That remains to be seen, but one thing that will help his cause is the fact that he is now captaining the Western Bulldogs; meaning that he will demand more attention from the umpires during games.

The only worrying sign with Boyd is that he polled in a meagre 9 out of 20 games; which equates to an average of 0.45 votes a game. However, one sole factor one must remember in regards to his polling frequency is that over the past 3 seasons this figure has improved from 6 to 9. Thus, it is quite possible that with the increased exposure - both on-field and off-field - that comes with being a club captain, one can only assume that it is more than likely he'll poll in a greater number of games for 2011.

Can he win it? I believe he can. As long as he can keep polling more 3 vote games than he does 2 and 1 vote games - as he did last year - then he'll be in with a big shot. He is definitely one to watch!

**Predicted 2011 Brownlow Finish: 1st-3rd**

2011 Brownlow Player Preview: S. Pendlebury

Name: S. Pendlebury

Club: Collingwood

2010 Brownlow Performance: Equal 4th 

WTS's 2010 Pre-Season Prediction: N/A

WTS's 2010 Post-Season Prediction: 3rd CLOSE!

Total Votes: 21

Games Polled: 8

Games Played: 22

Total Votes Breakdown: 5, 3, 0

Brownlow Odds: $15 (Courtesy of TAB)

Pendles is one bloke who went under my radar during the 2010 pre-season, so much so I didn't bother to write up a Pre-Season Player Preview last year. It wasn't until a few rounds in the season, and on further inspection of my phantom count did I realise we were witnessing the coming of age of one of the future elite midfielders of the game. And if you thought he stepped it up last year, then this year will be a sight to be seen as I expect very BIG things for young Pendles.

Being a Carlton supporter, I despise all Collingwood players, except for Pendles who happens to be one of my favourite players in the competition. Not that this has any bearing on anything else, but just thought i'd share with you the admiration I have for this bloke and how highly I rate him.

At the present time, Pendlebury sits in the same bracket as Joel Selwood as one of the few players from the crop of future superstars that are most likely to win the Brownlow Medal over the next few seasons. With aging stars such as Goodes, Black et. al. slowly but surely dropping off the pace, I feel the time has come for one of the next up and comers to snag the Brownlow. Given this, and in light of catapulting into the Top 5 in the 2010 count, I rate Pendlebury a very high chance of taking it a step higher and winning the coveted medal.

So how does one analyse his 2010 season?

One way is to compare it to that of his direct counterpart - Dane Swan. The reason for this is that Swan is the only real player to steal votes off him, so when on song, who is most likely to seal the 3 votes?

Well, if you look at the number of 3 vote games Swan polled in, there were only 2 in total - which happens to be among the lowest amount alongside Selwood out of those players to finish in the Top 10. Compare this to Pendlebury, who polled 5; this being the second equal highest number behind Judd (8), and one can see that Pendlebury is more than likely given the nod ahead of Swan when it comes to standout games.

And if Pendles steps it up a notch, and gains more votes alongside this form of grabbing more 3 vote games than Swan, i'd say he's a fair chance to win the 2011 Brownlow Medal. He won the Norm Smith, so why couldn't he go one better? At this stage, this is one speculative player i'll be on for Season 2011.


**Predicted 2011 Brownlow Finish: 1st-4th**

2011 Brownlow Player Preview: C. Judd

Name: Chris Judd

Club: Carlton

2010 Brownlow Performance: Winner!

WTS's 2010 Pre-Season Prediction: 2-3 CLOSE!

Total Votes: 30

Games Polled: 12

Games Played: 19

Total Votes Breakdown: 8, 2, 2

Brownlow Odds: $9 (Courtesy of TAB)

Well, where to begin? Some would call him an umpires pet, others would call him a champion player of our time and a worthy recipient of 2 Brownlow Medals. Whether you're on either ends of the spectrum, one can't deny the fact that he still remains one of the best players in the competition. And to come back and win the 2010 Brownlow Medal despite missing the first 3 rounds is testament to that fact.

So, the question remains: can the Juddmeister go back-to-back, and write himself into the history books to sit alongside the likes of other past champions such as Bobby Skilton, Dick Reynolds, Haydn Bunton, and Ian Stewart, in having won 3 Brownlow medals - the most in VFL/AFL.

But before you ponder that, just how did Judd manage to win the medal in 19 games? Let me break it down for you...

First off, he polled the most 3 vote games in the competition, amassing 3 votes in a whopping 8 games - way ahead of the next best with 5 (Ablett/Pendlebury/Hayes). The one thing this indicates, if anything, is that he was the absolute stand out player for Carlton. To put this in greater context, the only other players for Carlton that recieved 3 votes were Simpson, Gibbs, and Scotland, each obtaining only one 3 vote game apiece.

Secondly, Judd smashed all records by obtaining 3 votes in 5 consecutive games (Rnds 4-8)! Yep, that's right, 15 votes in the space of 5 games - meaning he scored half of his total 30 votes in that streak of games alone. On the night, at that point in the count he was a considerable margin a head of the rest and a near certain lock to win the medal. I recall during the pre-season in 2010 in my write up of Judd I reminded people not to underestimate Judd despite the fact he was missing the first 3 games of the season. In my write up back then I alluded to his injury riddled 2007 season when he played 19 games, and yet polled 16 votes in the first 8 games. Fact of the matter is this is a bloke that can poll a handful of votes within the space of only a few games, and it was this very reason why I warned people to write him off.

Thirdly, he polled in 12 out of the 19 games he played; meaning he polled at an average of 2.5 votes a game. A fair stat in itself, if you ask me.

So, let us harp back to the original question; is he capable of winning back-to-back Brownlows, and claiming his 3rd overall? Obviously it would stupid to write him off in light of what i've just said, and besides, it'd be ignorant to state that he couldn't replicate his feats of last year given he is after all the reigning Brownlow Medallist. However, one thing that must be factored in to the equation is that you'd expect either of Murphy or Gibbs, or if not both, will step up and take their game to the next level - particularly Gibbs, given there's talk Ratten will give him more time in the midfield. Given this, i'd say it's only fair to assume Gibbs and Murphy will be stealing votes off Judd, therefore making him less chance of being a runaway winner ala. 2010. But who's to say whether or not the umpires will change their stance in distributing the votes? They could still continue to give Judd the 3 votes even if either Gibbs or Murphy step it up and have awesome games to rival that of Judd.

It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds, but even if Gibbs or Murphy steal votes off Judd, i'd say he's still a chance to garner enough votes to win his 3rd Brownlow Medal. But that too is dependent on the dominance of Pendlebury, Selwood, and Boyd in their respective sides - who I can all see matching it with Judd on overall votes.

**Predicted 2011 Brownlow Finish: 1st-3rd**