Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Pre... Pre 2010 Season Odds Released!

Well, the odds for the 2010 Brownlow Medal have been released and it doesn't look as though it features any real surprises. Gary Ablett is of course the firm favourite at $7, ahead of Judd $11, and last seasons bolter (and very underrated) Hayes at $14.

Most notably Ablett has drawn shorter odds than last year, when he started the season at $11 favourite. My early thoughts are he might be too short at this stage, and there may be a slight chance his odds will inflate a tad more during the season. But if he starts the season like he did last season, watch his odds quickly diminish. In my eyes he is my personal favourite to take out the Charlie in 2010, and don't see any reason as to why his performances will dip, barring any further injuries. RIGHTFULLY FAV, BUT HARD TO GAUGE IF HIS ODDS WILL INFLATE.

Judd is of course the second favourite, for the second season in a row. If i recall he started at $10 last season, and considering he is going to miss the first 3 rounds of the 2010 season, he is way too short to back at this stage at $11. From the get go he is going to have to play catchup in order to take out the medal in 2010. With this in mind, his odds will most certainly inflate between Rounds 1 - 3 when he is on the sidelines. But don't discount Judd, he is Chris Judd afterall and if he has an even better season than 2009, watch out! POTENTIAL, BUT TOO SHORT AT THIS STAGE. ODDS WILL GROW.

Hayes is one i tipped to be the big smokie at the 2009 Brownlow and was shocked he was somewhat ignored by the bookies right up until the count. If you're after value Hayes is certainly one to look at, and don't be fooled by the fact the media allow Montagna and Dal Santo to overshadow him. He's a gun in and under player, and had the Norm Smith won at half time had Chapman not stepped up. VALUE PICK

Selwood is another to keep an eye on. I placed a smallish bet on him during the pre-season in 09, as his form was simply outstanding. Started at about $15 last season, so he offers small value here at $21. Ablett will always steal votes from him, but was clearly Geelong's second best player last season finishing 8th in the count with 16 votes. If Ablett has an extended stay on the sidelines, or unexpected form drop expect Selwood to receive the votes particularly if lord forbid he takes his game to yet another level. VALUE PICK

Of the other value picks, look out for the Carlton youngsters in Murphy and Gibbs. I got laughed at for placing a $5 free bet on Gibbs before the start of last season at odds of $126, but his value shone through in the end receiving 15 votes and finishing 9th, suggesting this kid has the potential to win the Charlie in the near future. For 2010 he starts at significantly shorter odds of $41 alongside the likes of Coon Dog, Hodge, and Dal Santo; which just shows the bookies are starting to realize his potential. Confident he can win it in the coming years, and is more likely a smokey for top 5 in 2010. TOP 5 POTENTIAL

Marc Murphy is one i will be keeping my eye on, after having an awesome season and finishing with 15 votes alongside Gibbsy. I have a feeling this bloke will step up, particularly in the absence of Judd in the first 3 rounds and make a name for himself. Like Gibbs, he had three 3 vote games throughout 09, but there exists a gap after that, only receiving one 2 vote game, with the rest being 1's. Needs to take his game to yet another level if he is to take out the Charlie. According to the Herald Sun, he has been the best backed thus far, and at the very least is worth a smallish flutter at odds of $34. VALUE PICK

Also, special mention to the charitable punter that placed $10 on Richmond's new messiah in Dustin Martin at odds of 5000-1 to win $50,000. Talk about ambitious!

Here is the list...

$7 Gary Ablett.

$11 Chris Judd.

$14 Lenny Hayes.

$17 Adam Goodes.

$21 Simon Black,
Joel Selwood.

$26 Lance Franklin,
Jonathan Brown,
Nick Riewoldt.

$34 Matthew Pavlich, Dane Swan,
Marc Murphy, Bernie Vince.

$41 Adam Cooney, Brent Harvey,
Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge,
Bryce Gibbs, Nick Dal Santo.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Bets of 2009 Brownlow: "Show me the Money!"

Seeing as though the footy offseason seems to be taking forever, i thought i'd share with you a few examples of the punting success i enjoyed at the 2009 Brownlow. Dead set i was like Cuba Gooding Jnr dancing around screaming "show me the money." And after you see the luck i had, you'll understand why!

I'll also include those multis that didn't get up just to show you how close i came to a few others. The truth is, not everything got up and i missed out on a few multis by one player, which is pretty good considering some had up to 7 legs in some.

Also, with a few of the muti's you'll note that some are nearly exactly the same, except for one player being replaced with another from the same team - for example Vince being replaced by Thompson and vice versa. The reason behind doing this was because i couldn't split the two players and had narrowed it down to those two players to win the most votes for their team. Thus, i included them both in two separate multis as a way of covering myself had the other one got up. This is one strategy i'd recommend doing, and one i'll be adopting in 2010.

Please note, for most of the multi's i've supplied here i didn't state the amount i bet; only the combined odds i received for the multi. To give you an idea though, for a majority of them i only put either a $10 or $5 on them as i'm not a massive punter.

MOST CLUB VOTES BETTING

TREDREA Warren @Price:6.50 WIN ODDS HALVED
BOYD Matthew @Price:1.30 WIN
PAVLICH Matthew @Price:4 WIN
JUDD Chris @Price:1.12 WIN
BLACK Simon @Price:1.48 WIN ODDS HALVED
VINCE Bernie @Price:2.50 WIN
GOODES Adam @Price:1.05 WIN
Multibet 7 legs @Combined Odds: $147.07 x $10 bet. WIN
POTENTIAL PAYOUT:$1470.70 X
REAL PAYOUT:$183.83WIN

THOMPSON Scott @Price:3.50 X
BLACK Simon @Price:1.60 WIN
JUDD Chris @Price:1.07 WIN
BOYD Matthew @Price:1.45 WIN
GOODES Adam @Price:1.02 WIN
HAYES Lenny @Price:8.58 WIN
Multibet 6 legs @Combined Price: $75.32 LOSS

HAYES Lenny @Price:8.58 WIN
JUDD Chris @Price:1.07 WIN
BLACK Simon @Price:1.60 WIN ODDS HALVED
GOODES Adam @Price:1.02 WIN
BOYD Matthew @Price:1.45 WIN
VINCE Bernie @Price:4.25 WIN
Multibet 6 legs @Combined Odds: $91.47 X $10 bet. WIN
POTENTIAL PAYOUT:$914.70 X
REAL PAYOUT:$457.35 WIN

THOMPSON Scott @Price:3.50 X
BLACK Simon @Price:1.60 WIN
JUDD Chris @Price:1.07 WIN
BOYD Matthew @Price:1.45 WIN
GOODES Adam @Price:1.02 WIN
HARVEY Brent @Price:1.50 WIN
WATSON Jobe @Price:2.15 WIN
Multibet 7 legs @Combined Odds: $28.58 LOSS

VINCE Bernie @Price:4.25 WIN
JUDD Chris @Price:1.07 WIN
BLACK Simon @Price:1.60 WIN ODDS HALVED
HARVEY Brent @Price:1.50 WIN
GOODES Adam @Price:1.02 WIN
WATSON Jobe @Price:2.15 WIN ODDS HALVED
BOYD Matthew @Price:1.45 WIN
Multibet 7 legs @Combined Odds: $34.70 X $15 WIN
POTENTIAL PAYOUT: $520.50 X
REAL PAYOUT: $130.12 WIN

PAVLICH Matthew @Price:3.75 WIN
BOYD Matthew @Price:1.30 WIN
GOODES Adam @Price:1.04 WIN
MOLONEY Brent @Price:6.50 X
JUDD Chris @Price:1.12 WIN
BLACK Simon @Price:1.45 WIN
VINCE Bernie @Price:2.75 WIN
Multibet 7 legs @Combined Odds: $147.17 LOSS

PAVLICH Matthew @Price:3.75 WIN
GOODES Adam @Price:1.04 WIN
BOYD Matthew @Price:1.30 WIN
Players Not Quoted (Mclean MELB) @Price:6 X
JUDD Chris @Price:1.12 WIN
BLACK Simon @Price:1.45 WIN
VINCE Bernie @Price:2.75 WIN
Multibet 7 legs @Combined Odds: $135.85 LOSS

JUDD Chris @Price:1.02 WIN
BLACK Simon @Price:1.85 WIN ODDS HALVED
HARVEY Brent @Price:1.80 WIN
Brownlow Rich Mst Team Votes Players Not Quoted @Price:3.50 WIN
GOODES Adam @Price:1.07 WIN
LECRAS Mark @Price:5.50 WIN
Multibet 6 legs @Combined Price: $69.96 WIN

BLACK Simon @Price:1.85 WIN
JUDD Chris @Price:1.02 WIN
HARVEY Brent @Price:1.80 WIN
GOODES Adam @Price:1.07 WIN
Brownlow Rich Mst Team Votes Players Not Quoted @Price:3.50 WIN
Multibet 5 legs @Combined Price: $12.72 WIN


GROUP VOTE WINNER BETTING

Brownlow Most Votes Group 3 HAYES Lenny (STK) @Price:7 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 6 VINCE Bernie (ADEL) @Price:2.50 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 4 GIBBS Bryce (CARL) @Price:3.25 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 2 ABLETT Gary (GEEL) @Price:1.28 WIN
Multibet 4 legs @Combined Odds: $72.80 WIN

Brownlow Most Votes Group 8 OKEEFE Ryan (SYD) @Price:3.30 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 6 VINCE Bernie (ADEL) @Price:2.50 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 5 THOMPSON Scott (ADEL) @Price:3.50 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 4 GIBBS Bryce (CARL) @Price:3.25 WIN
Multibet 4 legs @Combined Odds: $85.31 WIN

Brownlow Most Votes Group 7 PAVLICH Matthew (FREM) @ Price:4.50 X
Brownlow Most Votes Group 6 VINCE Bernie (ADEL) @Price:2.50 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 4 GIBBS Bryce (CARL) @Price:3.25 WIN
Multibet 3 legs @Combined Odds: $36.56 LOSS

Brownlow Most Votes Group 2 ABLETT Gary (GEEL) @Price:1.28 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 3 HAYES Lenny (STK) @Price:7 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 6 VINCE Bernie (ADEL) @Price:2.50 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 4 GIBBS Bryce (CARL) @Price:3.25 WIN
Multibet 4 legs @Combined Odds: $85.30 WIN

And here is one of the MOST VOTES GROUP multis that i wrote down, but didn't note the combined odds or that of Fev and can no longer access them on the TAB website.

Brownlow Most Votes Group 6 VINCE Bernie (ADEL) @Price:2.50 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 4 GIBBS Bryce (CARL) @Price:3.25 WIN
Brownlow Most Votes Group 7 FEVOLA Brendan (CARL) @Price: ? WIN

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Well, as you can see i was quite happy with the outcome of the Brownlow for season 09', with my only downfall being the fact each of Tredrea, Black, Watson tied in getting the most votes for their club. If they each got up outright i would've made an absolute killing!

If you want to share any Brownlow success stories of your own from season 09 or from any past, feel free to reply via the link below this blog entry.

In my next entry i'll be analysing the early Brownlow odds released by a few betting agencies and try and to spot some pre-pre-season value... can you tell i can't wait for the footy to start?

But until then... YAY for the offseason.

SHOW ME THE FOOOOOTY!

Monday, November 9, 2009

Hot Tip: Pre-Season Value

Howdy ladettes and gentilians!

The general consensus i get from people when it comes to Brownlow punting is that they wait until a few weeks out from the illustrious boozefest before they place their first bets, and some even waiting until on the night.

Thus, many would simply scoff at the suggestion of placing a bet on a potential winner during the Pre-Season, as it seems like such a waste to invest a figure of say, $50, on a player for 22 weeks. And to that i retort with a HA! In 09' i was out to make amends for the previous season where my luck was so bad i probably wouldn't have even scored a root in a brothel. So just to try something different i spread around approx $100 worth of bets on a couple of perceived Brownlow favorites and a couple of up and coming smokies at long odds. These were my bets:

Ablett - $35 @ $7 = 2009 Brownlow Medalist WIN
Judd - $25 @ $10 = 2nd LOSS
Selwood - $15 @ $31 = 8th LOSS
Deledio - $15 @ $67 = Outside Top 10 LOSS
Gibbs - $10 @ $127 = 9th LOSS

OUTLAY = $100
WIN = $245
PROFIT = $145

Whilst obviously Deledio and Gibbs were simply 'value' bets, based upon their solid form during the Pre-Season, Ablett, Judd, and Selwood, however, were genuine chances to take out the Charlie. And the luxury of placing a bet at the start of the season was that they were all at very juicy odds, with a fair chance their odds wouldn't have appreciated all that much, if at all throughout the season. Ablett's odds was the only one of the three i chose that really blew out after his injury patch, albiet not too substantially.

Whilst it's a risk that injuries or suspension can derail your chances of selecting a value winner, it's one that i saw as a calculated risk. My backup plan was to select 1-3 potential winners had one of them gone down, and it would've paid off as well, with my other selection in Judd winning it if Ablett didn't get up.

Either way, at the conclusion of Brownlow night let's just say i had a minuscule man-crush for Ablett. Pure and simple, that man's a genius awoah-o, ah-o, woah-oooo!

Stay classy, and stay tuned for more incessant rambling!

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Welcome to Brownlow Talk!

Hey hey!

Welcome to my humble abode, a place where i'll (hopefully) be able to provide you with some fairly insightful opinion and research based on the form and performances of key players and possible Brownlow smokies throughout the 2010 AFL season.

"But Walker," i hear you say, "does that mean you'll help make me a large pile of $$ that i can waste on cheap booze and strippers?" And the answer to that is hopefully, but not necessarily. The purpose of this blog is to trace my research throughout the season up until the night of the Brownlow, and, ultimately, see if i can build upon my own hot Brownlow betting form from season 09' or, at the very least, carry it over into 2010.

My intention is to help provide a forum where you can compare your Brownlow analyses to that of mine and, in doing so, assist eachother. Whether you choose to follow my prophecies (READ: hopeful selections) is your choice, but if you do choose to back me in i hope we can make a sensible amount of coin - similar to that which helped fund the Macbook Pro i'm currently using to post this blog entry. And after all... who doesn't like the idea of throwing copious amounts of money at strippers? Someone...? Anyone...? Bueller?

So what can you expect from this blog in 2010? Well, after the completion of each round i'll try to post up my 3,2,1s for each match, and throughout the season i'll try and get around to posting a 'season so-far' type analysis based upon a few select players, or those you have requested. And along the way a few other random tidbits will be thrown in. Yay for titbits! (sic)

But before i sign off in anticipation for the start of the 2010 season i'll leave you with a few small words of inspiration:

Righteo gents, what a great opportunity this is. This is the moment we've been waiting for, here's our chance to gain momentum, but it has to be underpinned by our hard work! How much fun will it be? How much fun will it be?! Enjoy the moment! So put on your Superman capes boys, it's wharfie time!