Hot Tip: Pre-Season Value

Howdy ladettes and gentilians!

The general consensus i get from people when it comes to Brownlow punting is that they wait until a few weeks out from the illustrious boozefest before they place their first bets, and some even waiting until on the night.

Thus, many would simply scoff at the suggestion of placing a bet on a potential winner during the Pre-Season, as it seems like such a waste to invest a figure of say, $50, on a player for 22 weeks. And to that i retort with a HA! In 09' i was out to make amends for the previous season where my luck was so bad i probably wouldn't have even scored a root in a brothel. So just to try something different i spread around approx $100 worth of bets on a couple of perceived Brownlow favorites and a couple of up and coming smokies at long odds. These were my bets:

Ablett - $35 @ $7 = 2009 Brownlow Medalist WIN
Judd - $25 @ $10 = 2nd LOSS
Selwood - $15 @ $31 = 8th LOSS
Deledio - $15 @ $67 = Outside Top 10 LOSS
Gibbs - $10 @ $127 = 9th LOSS

OUTLAY = $100
WIN = $245
PROFIT = $145

Whilst obviously Deledio and Gibbs were simply 'value' bets, based upon their solid form during the Pre-Season, Ablett, Judd, and Selwood, however, were genuine chances to take out the Charlie. And the luxury of placing a bet at the start of the season was that they were all at very juicy odds, with a fair chance their odds wouldn't have appreciated all that much, if at all throughout the season. Ablett's odds was the only one of the three i chose that really blew out after his injury patch, albiet not too substantially.

Whilst it's a risk that injuries or suspension can derail your chances of selecting a value winner, it's one that i saw as a calculated risk. My backup plan was to select 1-3 potential winners had one of them gone down, and it would've paid off as well, with my other selection in Judd winning it if Ablett didn't get up.

Either way, at the conclusion of Brownlow night let's just say i had a minuscule man-crush for Ablett. Pure and simple, that man's a genius awoah-o, ah-o, woah-oooo!

Stay classy, and stay tuned for more incessant rambling!

Welcome to Brownlow Talk!

Hey hey!

Welcome to my humble abode, a place where i'll (hopefully) be able to provide you with some fairly insightful opinion and research based on the form and performances of key players and possible Brownlow smokies throughout the 2010 AFL season.

"But Walker," i hear you say, "does that mean you'll help make me a large pile of $$ that i can waste on cheap booze and strippers?" And the answer to that is hopefully, but not necessarily. The purpose of this blog is to trace my research throughout the season up until the night of the Brownlow, and, ultimately, see if i can build upon my own hot Brownlow betting form from season 09' or, at the very least, carry it over into 2010.

My intention is to help provide a forum where you can compare your Brownlow analyses to that of mine and, in doing so, assist eachother. Whether you choose to follow my prophecies (READ: hopeful selections) is your choice, but if you do choose to back me in i hope we can make a sensible amount of coin - similar to that which helped fund the Macbook Pro i'm currently using to post this blog entry. And after all... who doesn't like the idea of throwing copious amounts of money at strippers? Someone...? Anyone...? Bueller?

So what can you expect from this blog in 2010? Well, after the completion of each round i'll try to post up my 3,2,1s for each match, and throughout the season i'll try and get around to posting a 'season so-far' type analysis based upon a few select players, or those you have requested. And along the way a few other random tidbits will be thrown in. Yay for titbits! (sic)

But before i sign off in anticipation for the start of the 2010 season i'll leave you with a few small words of inspiration:

Righteo gents, what a great opportunity this is. This is the moment we've been waiting for, here's our chance to gain momentum, but it has to be underpinned by our hard work! How much fun will it be? How much fun will it be?! Enjoy the moment! So put on your Superman capes boys, it's wharfie time!