Well, it's all come down to this. 22 rounds on, and we draw the curtain on yet another year filled with numerous upsets, highs, lows, retirements, suspensions, shelackings, sackings, and not to mention the hundreds of contenders in the running to take out football's highest, and most prestigious individual honour.
In the wake of Ablett's overly dominant display across the 2009 season, prior to season 2010 commencing, many shared the expectation that Gazza would once again take the competition by storm and win his second consecutive Brownlow medal. And this too was reflected in the betting markets, with all of the bookies mirroring this sentiment, opening Ablett's odds up at a very short $6 when betting for the Brownlow winner market first commenced.
Others, on the other hand, were of the opinion that one of the other contenders would topple the reigning medalist. And all of them shared a common factor; not only did they each face an uphill battle in terms of producing a better season than the lofty standard set by Ablett's outstanding year in 2009, they also had to overcome other personal adversaries that stood in their path to glory.
Among these included Judd - who would sit out the first 3 rounds of the season due to a carry of suspension. Could he come back and produce his best in an attempt to make up for lost ground in order to go toe to toe with Ablett at the top of the count?
Another was Swan. Could he fly in the face adversary and finally poll in games where he was expected to poll, as was the problem he encountered in 2009.
Hayes showed last year that he was edging ever closer to winning the medal, polling considerably well, and taking many of the bookies by surprise - much to the enjoyment of many punters like myself. Could he have a consistent season, and get through a full season unscathed?
Or would a young, superstar in the making - such as Selwood and Pendlebury - stun the football world and take out the Charlie against their more favoured opponents?
And so, as we draw a close to the Home and Away 2010 season, only one question remains:
Which of these players, among a host of others, will win the 2010 Brownlow Medal?
In my best Andrew Demetriou impersonation, here come my final votes for 2010.
Round 22
Fremantle V Carlton
3. S. Hill
2. M. Johnson
1. C...*pause* Judd
Geelong V West Coast
3. G... *pause* Ablett
2. J. Kelly
1. D. Milburn
Hawthorn V Collingwood
3. L. Franklin
2. S... *pause* Mitchell
1. D. Swan
Adelaide V St. Kilda
3. S. Thompson
2. R. Douglas
1. N. Dal Santo
Brisbane V Sydney
3. K. Jack
2. N. Malceski
1. J. Kennedy
Western Bulldogs V Essendon
3. J. Grant
2. C. Ward
1. D. Giansiracusa
Richmond V Port Adelaide
3. T. Boak
2. M. Morton
1. D. Brogan
Melbourne V North Melbourne
3. L. Greenwood
2. B. Harvey
1. B. Green
-----------------------------------------------------------
Final Leaderboard:
26 - G. Ablett
25 - C. Judd
24 - S. Pendlebury
22 - L. Hodge
21 - L. Hayes
20 – J. Selwood
19 - D. Swan
"I declare the winner of the 2010 Brownlow Medal; Gary Ablett, of the Geelong Football Club!"
So there we have it! Ablett scores the BOG honours, and leapfrogs Judd as soon as he gains the one vote lead over Pendlebury. Make no mistake, i'm just as shocked to see my phantom count name Ablett the winner, as it was only at the conclusion of Round 16 that he trailed the leading Hodge by a staggering 5 votes! But I must admit he's had a very solid finish to the year; very much mirroring the phenomenal start he had in the first few rounds.
However, the one major factor that stands in his way of a second consecutive Brownlow is the 'second year Brownlow blues', which is something i've touched on numerous times throughout the year. This is the sentiment where the Brownlow medalist fails to poll as well as they would expect to in the year following their win. This train of thought centers around the theory that umpires take a more hardened and critical approach towards the performances of past Brownlow winners in the season following their Brownlow triumph.
Jimmy Bartel is one classic example of this theory. In 2008, Jimmy had a season that many would argue was much better than the previous year, in which he won the Brownlow, and coming into the medal count that year a vast majority of the footballing public were convinced he would go back to back. But as we all know he amazingly only polled 10 votes, despite polling 29 in 2007.
Need more evidence? Take a look at other previous winners:
Cooney, 2008: 24 Votes / 2009: 3 Votes.
Goodes, 2006: 26 Votes / 2007: 20 Votes.
Cousins, 2005: 20 Votes / 2006: 13 Votes.
Judd, 2004: 30 Votes / 2005: 15 Votes.
Black, 2002: 25 Votes / 2003: 12 Votes.
If this trend continues, one would suggest that many of the votes you'd expect Ablett to get would therefore go to Selwood, among others. If this were to be the case then you'd also expect he'd be much closer to the lead than my tally suggests. For this very reason I am still of the opinion that he is a slight smokey for the Brownlow and is not without a chance.
But with my tally indicating that only 2 votes separate the top 3 players, I am still of the belief that up to 3-4 players will be in contention on the night right up until Round 22, and thus could be won by any of these players.
Either way, as they say: "Ladies and Gentleman please be upstanding, charge your glasses to celebrate the winner of the 2010 Brownlow Medal... or just neck the damned bottle if it's the bloke you've got money on to win."
Stay tuned for my 'Most Team Votes' tally to follow!
This is the moment we've been waiting for! The VicTAB Sportsbet have finally opened the market for 'Most Team Votes', and the most pleasing news is that they HAVE indeed allowed them to be multied!
