Like a fine wine! - Round 1, 2010 Wrap - 3, 2, 1 Votes.

Round 1 didn't bring about too many surprises, with 6 of the 8 favourites victorious in their respective matches. There was, however, one young bloke by the name of Michael Barlow for the Dockers who had a ripper of a debut game, amassing 33 disposals, 4 clearances, 6 marks, and scoring 2.1. Such was his impact, he eclipsed former Brisbane Lion Bradd Dalziell’s record of 32 possessions on debut. Not a bad way to kick start your career in the AFL! For that effort I feel he's a near certainty to collect votes, whether it's 3 votes or only 2 remains to be seen, as I can't remember anyone in recent memory having scored 3 votes on debut. But if anyone else out there knows otherwise, feel free to comment down below.

Also i'd be interested to hear other peoples opinions on who they'd give their 3, 2, 1 votes to in Round 1, so comment away!

Carlton V Richmond
3. Carrazzo
2. Betts
1. Kreuzer

Geelong V Essendon
3. Byrnes
2. Ablett
1. Bartel

Melbourne V Hawthorn
3. Hodge
2. Lewis
1. Mitchell

Sydney V St Kilda
3. Riewoldt
2. Goodes
1. Gilbert

Brisbane V West Coast
3. Brennan
2. J. Brown
1. Black

Port Adelaide V North Melbourne
3. Kornes
2. Boak
1. Harvey

Western Bulldogs V Collingwood
3. Swan
2. Shaw
1. Boyd

Fremantle V Adelaide
3. Barlow
2. Sandilands
1. Ballantyne

Season 2010 is upon us - BRING IT ON!!!

Well, the 2010 season officially kicks off this Thursday night in the match between Carlton v Richmond, and it couldn't have come quick enough! This also means that now is your last chance to make any pre-season bets on players you see as value before their odds change come the conclusion of Round 1.

To mark this, with reference to particular players, allow me to analyze the difference in the odds that are currently being offered to those which were initially offered when the Brownlow market first opened; thus highlighting some the market's most notable movers, shakers, and heartbreakers. All odds are courtesy of the TAB.

• Adam Cooney - NOW: $21.00 THEN: $51.00

In my last blog entry I cited the value in Coondog, and announced that he would shorten further from $31.00. Since then he has been continuing to show solid form throughout the NAB Pre-Season Comp and, as a result, has been slashed into $21.00. For those still interested in having a dabble, the best odds on him are being offered by Sportingbet @ $34.00. Also, he's quite good value in their Top 5 market @ $7.50.

• Joel Selwood - NOW: $17.00 THEN: $21.00

He still remains my smokey for the Brownlow this year, and his pre-season form hasn't done his chances any harm. He is currently 5th favourite, and at $17.00 is at slightly longer odds than that of the same time last year when $15.00 was being offered about him. Interesting indeed!

• Nic Naitanui - NOW: $51.00 THEN: $501.00

Granted, this kid is a freak and is a very strong chance to win the NAB Rising Star, but to suggest he'll win the Brownlow in just his second season is hilarious. He is still quite raw, and whilst he possesses a lot of natural ability, he still has much to learn in order to sharpen up his game. Not out of the realms of possibility that he'll one day have a Charlie hanging around his neck, but it won't be this year. Betting on NicNat is akin to making a monetary donation, so i'd suggest if you're in any way tempted, to bypass this bloke and give it to a charity instead.

• Gary Ablett - NOW: $6.00 THEN: $7.00
  

No surprises here. Despite the fact he has only shortened by a solitary dollar, it still indicates that he is quite resoundingly the punters favourite in 2010, with daylight separating him from the next best at $13.00. It will be interesting to see if all this talk surrounding his future at Geelong has any influence on his performances throughout the season. But if there is any sign of unrest in his mind, it'll be evident in the early rounds.

2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Adam Cooney

Name: Adam Cooney
Club: Western Bulldogs
2009 Brownlow Performance: Outside Top 20
Total Votes: 3
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
1, 0, 0
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: Top 5.
Brownlow Odds: $31 (Courtesy of TAB)

First off, let me highlight the sheer value that Coondog is currently offering at $31. Keep in mind this is a bloke who only recently conquered all and beat Ablett to the Brownlow in 2008, so how the bookies can write him off so nonchalantly is beyond comprehension. In recent weeks, punters have been vindicating this very fact using their own hard earned, with Cooney shortening from his starting price of $51. Personally, i was too slow to jump on, but for those who did you'd be quite happy and quietly confident. But despite his massive drop in odds, he still offers great value at $31, so if you're of the opinion he's a massive chance for 2010 you still have the chance to have a flutter.

Most astounding about his odds is when you compare his to those that are being offered for other players. It is here where you begin to see his real value. For example, another previous Brownlow medalist in Bartel is priced at $26, and yet he has Ablett there not only to contend with, but most probably steal his votes as he did last season. What this says to me is that the price being offered for Cooney is over the odds, and if anything, both Bartel and Cooney should be priced equally.

So with Cooney only receiving 3 Brownlow votes for the entire 2009 season, why did he suffer such a massive fall from grace following his win in the year prior? If i recall correctly he had a very limited pre-season, hampered with both knee and groin problems early on, and from then on had trouble regaining both fitness and form. However, by mid season he finally started to hit his straps and, as it were, was unlucky to only receive 3 votes having played a major part in the Dogs' run towards the finals, averaging 29 disposals in the last 15 games.

However, in stark contrast to last year, Cooney has had an injury free pre-season thus far, and by all reports is experiencing his best pre-season yet. Like many others, i'm of the strong belief that the Doggies will come very close to taking out the premiership in 2010, if not winning it outright. Given this, you'd suggest Cooney would have to play a major hand if this were to transpire, and therefore inevitably have a massive season. With this in mind, Cooney is potentially a big show and is one to watch out for; moreso if the Dogs are looking early on to have as equally as big a season as the man himself.

2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Dane Swan

Name: Dane Swan
Club: Collingwood
2009 Brownlow Performance: Equal 10th
Total Votes: 12
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
2, 1, 4
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: 7-10.
Brownlow Odds: $13 (Courtesy of TAB)

Swan was an absolute ball magnet last year, dead set you wouldn't blame the man had he got leather poisoning. He was racking up possessions at will to such an extent that people starting judging his game by the amount of possies he had.

If anything, Swan is a prime example to any punter out there that may be under the belief that the amount of possessions a player gets will therefore correlate to Brownlow votes. Because quite simply, this isn't necessarily the case. I am a big believer that umpires favour those midfielders whose strength in their game is the ability to get their own contested footy and create the play. If you look at the amount of possessions Swan gathered, in relation to the amount of those that were contested, you'll see he falls under that bracket of players I like to call 'link men receivers'. Out of the total 700 possessions he racked up - the best of any player - only 227 of those were contested. This means that only 32.42% of his possessions were contested, whilst 67.58% were uncontested.

The interesting thing though, is that Ablett didn't fair much better for this statistic, and yet he won the Brownlow medal. So what gives? The way i see it, i consider Ablett more of a playmaker whose possessions directly influence games, thereby catching the eye of the umps. On the other hand, I classify Swan to be more of a linkman who is usually the second or third link in a string of play that involves the ball being passed to multiple players before the last player in that link creates the play and either sets up a goal or has a forward 50 entry. Thus, so whilst Swan racks up a ton of possessions, he is seen by the umpire as a linkman rather than a playmaker and therefore fails to impress the men in white.

That's my personal explanation, but hey you may hold differing opinions. Although, based on this theory, I called it last year that Swan would fail to make the top 5 in the Brownlow, let alone win it. People scoffed at me, but i was right. So unless Swan alters his game somewhat to mirror that of say an Ablett, or Judd, who make every one of their possessions count, his 700 possessions a season will amount to nothing come Brownlow night. But until then, i'm not convinced.