Demetriou was busy riciting difficult names, such as Luke Dahlhaus.'
We're only 1 sleep away from glory. So close to finding out whose neck this years Brownlow Medal will be draped around. Could it be:
Jobe Watson - The no fuss Essendon captain, and sound favourite all year - that is until the last month of the H&A season when his team's lacklustre performances could rob him of a Brownlow Medal. Since then he has somewhat faded into obscurity, and clouded his ripping early season form. But it is this form during the first part of the season that should catapult him to the lead at the mid-way point of the season. The question is; will he be able to maintain his polling thereafter that point?
Trent Cotchin - The 22 year old young gun, and end of season bolter. His consistent performances throughout the year caught the eye of a few, but it wasn't until the latter half of the season that the media and wider AFL community began to take notice of his ripping form. Could he take out the Medal and officially stamp himself as one of the 'next generation' of superstars on the AFL's night of nights?
Gary Ablett - Arguably the best player in the competition playing in one of the AFL's biggest struggling sides. He remarkably polled 23 votes last year in a side that won 3 games, and conversely lost quite a few by margins that pushed 50+ points. Can Gazza defy the odds and poll enough votes to become a dual Brownlow Medallist?
Scott Thompson - He has averaged 14.2 votes over the past 5 seasons, with a high of 18. That indicates that whilst he has been consistent in polling, he just doesn't have the history of polling anywhere near the mark required to be a realistic chance at winning. Statistically he is nearly identical to 2011, when he only polled 12 votes. Granted, Adelaide have won many more games than what they did in many of the past 5 seasons, meaning he'll have a higher chance of polling in a greater number of games, but he will have to defy his polling history to win.
Patrick Dangerfield - Dangerfield's season in 2012 can be described as one of the best 'break-out seasons' this year. His ability to win the ball in close, kick booming goals on the run, and shrug tackles on a regular basis is a recipe for attracting the umpires eyes. Like Thompson, he will have a higher chance at polling more regularly this year compared to previous years given the Crows only lost 7 games. But whether he can go from polling 7 votes last year to near the 30 required to win this year is the biggest question mark over him.
Dane Swan - Last year's Brownlow Medallist began hitting his straps from Rounds 11 - 19, but it all came to a screeching halt when he was handed a club imposed suspension for breaking team rules that forbid any player from drinking during the season. Can he poll enough during that hot patch to take out back-to-back Brownlows?
Or perhaps other outside chances such as Sam Mitchell, Scott Pendlebury, or another smokey, can snatch the Medal from the shadows.
Anyone of these contenders have a realistic chance at winning, and each have their own individual reasons to stake claim to taking up the mantle of 2012's Fairest & Best player of the competition, as judged by the umpires.
As many would know, in the process of analysing the playing performances of every player, round by round, I compile a Phantom Brownlow Count that I use to help determine who is the greatest chance to win the Brownlow. Of course I am not Nostrodamus, so it is not 100% foolproof, but it helps give me a strong indication as to is a realistic chance at the Medal. As such, I do not endorse anyone to use my analysis for betting purposes, and treat it as somewhat of a guide only and my own personal opinion.
The following is my Phantom Top 10 as per the 3, 2, 1 votes I have distributed for each game throughout the season:
29 - T. Cotchin
28 - G. Ablett
28 - S. Thompson
27 - J. Watson
25 - P. Dangerfield
---------------------------
23 - S. Mitchell
23 - J. Kennedy
22 - D. Swan
22 - J. Selwood
22 - K. Jack
As we can see I have Cotchin winning, but not without close competition from Ablett, Thompson and Watson. Whilst my analysis could easily stop right there, since the conclusion of the H&A season I have gone back over and analysed the season once more to help further shape my leaderboard. In doing so, I have factored in a few other ideas and expectations as to what may hinder or help the chances of particular players, thus slightly altering the initial leaderboard I drafted on the back of my votes alone.
As a result, my new revised Top 3 stands at:
1st - Watson
2nd - Cotchin
3rd - Ablett.
The reason behind the elevation of Watson into the winners seat is founded upon his promising polling history and overall polling ability. Last year he polled 11 votes in 8 games, and before he got injured his projected polling tally stood at around the high 30's mark - which would have rivalled that of Dane Swan last year. Prior to that, in 2010 he polled a modest 16 votes. The key here is that he has a solid enough polling record to suggest he is noticed by the umpires, and thus could take the next step and poll quite highly after an injury free season.
If we look at his early season form this year, he was neck and neck with Stanton, who was also in ripping form. The question is can Watson steal votes from Stanton, because if he does - like I expect him to - it will be a key indicator to suggest very early on if Watson will win the medal.
In the first 7 games I have Watson polling a total of 14 votes from 6 of the first 7 games, whilst I have Stanton polling 13 votes in 5 of those games. But with Stanton's polling history being quite unfavourable in comparison to Watson's, it is quite conceivable to say in those matches where I have Stanton polling 1 more vote than Watson (Rounds 1, 4, 6), it's possible the roles could be reversed and we could see Watson poll 1 more vote ahead of Stanton in one, two, or all three of those matches. The more games in which he steals votes, the closer he will come to being crowned the 2012 Brownlow Medallist.
As for Cotchin, I expect him to underpoll slightly, and fall ever so short of the medal this year. The reason behind this is that I see Cotchin in a similar situation to Marc Murphy last season, when he polled '1 votes' in 8 out of the total 12 games he polled in. Many of these games were those where many expected him to poll closer to 2 or 3 votes, but instead he was lobbed the 1 vote, and the higher votes went to his more esteemed and highly recognised teammate in Chris Judd. I make this comparison between the two players because they're seasons mirror each other in the sense that they are seasons in which both players had 'break-out seasons'. My theory is that it is only after a player has had a break-out season, they will then begin to poll more regularly and rightfully command 2 or 3 votes from the umpires in games where they rightfully deserve them. Thus, I could see Cotchin losing votes to Deledio or Tuck, although his saving grace may be that both of those players don't have favourable polling histories. If he can avoid this, and command votes where my original Phantom Brownlow Count has him polling, then he will win, no doubt.
Unfortunately for Ablett, I believe his chances are the slimmest of the 3. Without sounding like a broken record on the issue, the fact he plays for a bottom-two side says to me he is up the proverbial creek with no paddle when it comes to trying to command votes. He did poll 23 votes in 2011, but because it is such a close and competitive year, I think he will need to poll much closer to 30 votes to be a chance of winning. Whilst I have him polling 28 votes on my Phantom Brownlow Count, I can see the umpires opting to give out votes to other players on the opposition, particularly in those matches where the Suns got smashed by 50+ points and I have given him votes.
In closing, either one of Watson or Cotchin are my predicted winners, and aside from who wins it's going to be a ripper count, and one i'm looking forward to immensely.
And lastly, below is my coveted Most Team Votes leaderboard for each team.
Bring on tomorrow night!
MOST TEAM VOTES:
Adelaide: 28 Thompson, 25 Dangerfield.
Brisbane: 13 Rockliff, 9 Redden, 7 Black.
Carlton: 17 Murphy, 14 Judd.
Collingwood: 22 Swan, 20 Beams, 19 Pendlebury.
Essendon: 27 Watson, 15 Stanton.
Fremantle: 16 Pavlich, 13 Hill.
Geelong: 22 Selwood, 14 Hawkins.
Gold Coast: 28 Ablett.
GWS: 6 Greene, 5 Giles, 3 Ward, 3 Coniglio.
Hawthorn: 23 Mitchell, 13 Franklin, 12 Sewell.
Melbourne: 10 Jones.
North Melbourne: 17 Harvey, 13 Swallow.
Port Adelaide: 7 Boak, 6 Hartlett, 5 Ebert.
Richmond: 29 Cotchin, 18 Deledio, 10 Tuck.
St. Kilda: 21 Hayes, 17 Dal Santo.
Sydney: 23 Kennedy, 22 Jack.
West Coast: 18 S. Selwood, 17 Priddis, 14 Kerr, 13 Shuey.
Western Bulldogs: 17 Boyd, 11 Griffen.
The following is my Phantom Top 10 as per the 3, 2, 1 votes I have distributed for each game throughout the season:
29 - T. Cotchin
28 - G. Ablett
28 - S. Thompson
27 - J. Watson
25 - P. Dangerfield
---------------------------
23 - S. Mitchell
23 - J. Kennedy
22 - D. Swan
22 - J. Selwood
22 - K. Jack
As we can see I have Cotchin winning, but not without close competition from Ablett, Thompson and Watson. Whilst my analysis could easily stop right there, since the conclusion of the H&A season I have gone back over and analysed the season once more to help further shape my leaderboard. In doing so, I have factored in a few other ideas and expectations as to what may hinder or help the chances of particular players, thus slightly altering the initial leaderboard I drafted on the back of my votes alone.
As a result, my new revised Top 3 stands at:
1st - Watson
2nd - Cotchin
3rd - Ablett.
The reason behind the elevation of Watson into the winners seat is founded upon his promising polling history and overall polling ability. Last year he polled 11 votes in 8 games, and before he got injured his projected polling tally stood at around the high 30's mark - which would have rivalled that of Dane Swan last year. Prior to that, in 2010 he polled a modest 16 votes. The key here is that he has a solid enough polling record to suggest he is noticed by the umpires, and thus could take the next step and poll quite highly after an injury free season.
If we look at his early season form this year, he was neck and neck with Stanton, who was also in ripping form. The question is can Watson steal votes from Stanton, because if he does - like I expect him to - it will be a key indicator to suggest very early on if Watson will win the medal.
In the first 7 games I have Watson polling a total of 14 votes from 6 of the first 7 games, whilst I have Stanton polling 13 votes in 5 of those games. But with Stanton's polling history being quite unfavourable in comparison to Watson's, it is quite conceivable to say in those matches where I have Stanton polling 1 more vote than Watson (Rounds 1, 4, 6), it's possible the roles could be reversed and we could see Watson poll 1 more vote ahead of Stanton in one, two, or all three of those matches. The more games in which he steals votes, the closer he will come to being crowned the 2012 Brownlow Medallist.
As for Cotchin, I expect him to underpoll slightly, and fall ever so short of the medal this year. The reason behind this is that I see Cotchin in a similar situation to Marc Murphy last season, when he polled '1 votes' in 8 out of the total 12 games he polled in. Many of these games were those where many expected him to poll closer to 2 or 3 votes, but instead he was lobbed the 1 vote, and the higher votes went to his more esteemed and highly recognised teammate in Chris Judd. I make this comparison between the two players because they're seasons mirror each other in the sense that they are seasons in which both players had 'break-out seasons'. My theory is that it is only after a player has had a break-out season, they will then begin to poll more regularly and rightfully command 2 or 3 votes from the umpires in games where they rightfully deserve them. Thus, I could see Cotchin losing votes to Deledio or Tuck, although his saving grace may be that both of those players don't have favourable polling histories. If he can avoid this, and command votes where my original Phantom Brownlow Count has him polling, then he will win, no doubt.
Unfortunately for Ablett, I believe his chances are the slimmest of the 3. Without sounding like a broken record on the issue, the fact he plays for a bottom-two side says to me he is up the proverbial creek with no paddle when it comes to trying to command votes. He did poll 23 votes in 2011, but because it is such a close and competitive year, I think he will need to poll much closer to 30 votes to be a chance of winning. Whilst I have him polling 28 votes on my Phantom Brownlow Count, I can see the umpires opting to give out votes to other players on the opposition, particularly in those matches where the Suns got smashed by 50+ points and I have given him votes.
In closing, either one of Watson or Cotchin are my predicted winners, and aside from who wins it's going to be a ripper count, and one i'm looking forward to immensely.
And lastly, below is my coveted Most Team Votes leaderboard for each team.
Bring on tomorrow night!
MOST TEAM VOTES:
Adelaide: 28 Thompson, 25 Dangerfield.
Brisbane: 13 Rockliff, 9 Redden, 7 Black.
Carlton: 17 Murphy, 14 Judd.
Collingwood: 22 Swan, 20 Beams, 19 Pendlebury.
Essendon: 27 Watson, 15 Stanton.
Fremantle: 16 Pavlich, 13 Hill.
Geelong: 22 Selwood, 14 Hawkins.
Gold Coast: 28 Ablett.
GWS: 6 Greene, 5 Giles, 3 Ward, 3 Coniglio.
Hawthorn: 23 Mitchell, 13 Franklin, 12 Sewell.
Melbourne: 10 Jones.
North Melbourne: 17 Harvey, 13 Swallow.
Port Adelaide: 7 Boak, 6 Hartlett, 5 Ebert.
Richmond: 29 Cotchin, 18 Deledio, 10 Tuck.
St. Kilda: 21 Hayes, 17 Dal Santo.
Sydney: 23 Kennedy, 22 Jack.
West Coast: 18 S. Selwood, 17 Priddis, 14 Kerr, 13 Shuey.
Western Bulldogs: 17 Boyd, 11 Griffen.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
ReplyDeletenice walks! hayes 21 votes? i have him much lower but the umps do love him!
ReplyDeleteCheers mate!
ReplyDeleteI am a massive fan of Lenny's much like the umps! I feel I may have overpolled him slightly, or at least have him polling at his maximum, so I don't expect him to poll anymore than 21.
Hayes was a bit of a surprise along with Boyd underpolling.
ReplyDelete