2011 Brownlow Player Preview: J. Selwood

Name: J. Selwood
Club: Geelong

2010 Brownlow Performance: Equal 4th

WTS's 2010 Pre-Season Prediction: 3-4 ✔

Total Votes: 21

Games Polled: 12

Games Played: 21

Total Votes Breakdown: 2, 5, 5

Brownlow Odds: $11 (Courtesy of TAB)

Joel Selwood. This is a bloke that has polled 58 votes out of a possible 82 games, or an average 0.71 votes a game - which happens to be the 2nd highest votes per game average behind Chris Judd. But the similarities between these two don't stop there, with some even comparing his ability to turn a game with that of a young Judd at West Coast when he won his first Brownlow at just the tender age of 21 in 2004.

So is 2011 the year Selwood justifies these comparisons by winning the Brownlow Medal in a similar vein to Judd, at 23 years of age? Well, at that sort of votes per game average I guess it's only a matter of time! So what lies in store for the season ahead?

The notable absence in Geelong's lineup this year is of course Gary Ablett, who moved to Gold Coast over the summer. Whilst devastating for Geelong as a whole, this however could be a godsend for the likes of Selwood, Bartel et. al. in that they will be the players that will be netting all of those votes that would otherwise be handed to Ablett if he were still playing down at the Cattery.

Last year Selwood had only two 3 vote games - one of which was in Round 6, which is of particular note, as this was the same game that Ablett missed through injury. Very interesting! Could this be a slight indicator of what's in store for the 'wood seller' in 2011 now that Ablett is no longer there?

It's quite a (albeit unwanted) feat to have polled in 12 games, and only finish with 21 votes - particularly when you consider that Judd also polled in 12 games and yet finished with 30 votes. That alone highlights how much of a detrimental influence Ablett was having on the polling ability of Selwood. For this reason I believe Selwood has the ability to poll much more than he did in 2010.

Let's play devils advocate for a moment and say the Gold Coast were to enter the competition a year earlier than anticipated, and Ablett up and left a year earlier. Had this happened i'd say Selwood's polling performance at the 2010 Brownlow would've been much different to what actually transpired in reality. Without Ablett there's a fair chance a vast majority of those 2 vote games Selwood polled in would've likely been 3 vote games, and likewise those 1 vote games would've been 2.

Having said that i'd say Selwood would've come much closer to winning the medal than what he did, which gives me more reason to think that he is a major chance at taking out the Charlie in 2011. Without Ablett to hold him back anything is possible, and with both the uncanny polling ability and history to rival that of Chris Judd, i'd say he's one of the major contenders for Season 2011.

**Predicted 2011 Brownlow Finish: 1st-3rd**