Well, the 2010 season officially kicks off this Thursday night in the match between Carlton v Richmond, and it couldn't have come quick enough! This also means that now is your last chance to make any pre-season bets on players you see as value before their odds change come the conclusion of Round 1.
To mark this, with reference to particular players, allow me to analyze the difference in the odds that are currently being offered to those which were initially offered when the Brownlow market first opened; thus highlighting some the market's most notable movers, shakers, and heartbreakers. All odds are courtesy of the TAB.
- Adam Cooney - NOW: $21.00 THEN: $51.00
In my last blog entry I cited the value in Coondog, and announced that he would shorten further from $31.00. Since then he has been continuing to show solid form throughout the NAB Pre-Season Comp and, as a result, has been slashed into $21.00. For those still interested in having a dabble, the best odds on him are being offered by Sportingbet @ $34.00. Also, he's quite good value in their Top 5 market @ $7.50.
- Joel Selwood - NOW: $17.00 THEN: $21.00
He still remains my smokey for the Brownlow this year, and his pre-season form hasn't done his chances any harm. He is currently 5th favourite, and at $17.00 is at slightly longer odds than that of the same time last year when $15.00 was being offered about him. Interesting indeed!
- Nic Naitanui - NOW: $51.00 THEN: $501.00
Granted, this kid is a freak and is a very strong chance to win the NAB Rising Star, but to suggest he'll win the Brownlow in just his second season is hilarious. He is still quite raw, and whilst he possesses a lot of natural ability, he still has much to learn in order to sharpen up his game. Not out of the realms of possibility that he'll one day have a Charlie hanging around his neck, but it won't be this year. Betting on NicNat is akin to making a monetary donation, so i'd suggest if you're in any way tempted, to bypass this bloke and give it to a charity instead.
- Gary Ablett - NOW: $6.00 THEN: $7.00
No surprises here. Despite the fact he has only shortened by a solitary dollar, it still indicates that he is quite resoundingly the punters favourite in 2010, with daylight separating him from the next best at $13.00. It will be interesting to see if all this talk surrounding his future at Geelong has any influence on his performances throughout the season. But if there is any sign of unrest in his mind, it'll be evident in the early rounds.
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