'The Rat Pack' - Round 21, 2010 Wrap - 3, 2, 1 Votes.

As we near the finish line and a few more Brownlow contenders fall off the pace, we come into Round 22 with a group of 5 supremely talented players that are quite possibly one game, if not mere votes away, from claiming the 2010 Brownlow Medal. And like the Rat Pack of old, you could say that most of these players are the footballing equivalent of say a Sinatra, Martin, et. al, so regardless of who comes out on top come the conclusion of next weekend's matches will be a worthy winner.

One surprise of late is the meteoric rise of Scott Pendlebury; having polled a whopping 12 votes in the past 5 rounds according to my phantom tally. And as of Round 21 I have him sitting as equal leader alongside Chris Judd. Who would have thought?! Well, not me that's for sure!

So as we head into the abyss that is Round 22, let's take a look at each of the 5 contenders facing off for football's highest individual honour using my phantom brownlow tally, giving particular focus to; the equation that faces them; what needs to happen for them to win; and of course my tip.

Chris Judd (vs. Fremantle)

Being equal leader on 24 votes, Judd is by no means in safe territory. With Pendlebury sitting alongside him and Hayes the smallest threat at a distance 3 votes, he cannot simply rely upon the other 4 players not polling a single vote - because this is of course highly unlikely. These are the various scenarios he may face:

• Polls 3 votes: 

1. He will win outright if Pendlebury polls less than 3.
2. He will be joint winner with Pendlebury if he also polls 3.

•  Polls 2 votes:

1. He will win outright/be joint winner if Pendlebury polls 2 votes or less.
2. He will be joint winner if Ablett polls 3 votes.
3. He will lose if Pendlebury polls 3 votes.

• Polls 1 vote:

1. He will win outright if Pendlebury polls no votes.
2. He will be joint winner if: Pendlebury polls 1 and/or Ablett polls 2 and/or Hodge polls 3.
3. He will lose if Pendlebury polls 2-3 votes.
4. He will lose if Ablett polls 3 votes.

Previous Brownlow form in last 3 matches against Freo (2010 excl):  2 votes from his previous 3 games against Freo during his time at Carlton. 30+ possessions in their loss to Freo in Round 13 this year.

Scott Pendlebury (vs. Hawthorn)

Finds himself in a somewhat cosy position given his blistering form over the past 5 rounds. But, like Judd, he cannot afford to became too laxidazical and look behind him to sound out how close behind his competition is, otherwise he'll fall off his perch. Because the reality is, it's that close he cannot afford to lose his head and not poll in Round 22. These are the various scenarios he may face:

• Polls 3 votes:

1. He will win outright if Judd polls less than 3.
2. He will be joint winner with Judd if he also polls 3.

•  Polls 2 votes:

1. He will win outright/be joint winner if Judd polls 2 votes or less.
2. He will be joint winner if Ablett polls 3 votes.
   
3. He will lose if Judd polls 3 votes.

• Polls 1 vote:

1. He will win outright if Judd polls no votes.
2. He will be joint winner if: Judd polls 1 and/or Ablett polls 2 and/or Hodge polls 3.
3. He will lose if Judd polls 2-3 votes.
   
4. He will lose if Ablett polls 3 votes.

Previous Brownlow form in last 3 matches against Hawthorn :  No votes as yet!

Gary Ablett (vs. West Coast)

Gazza is closing fast on his two rival leaders, but in trailing them both by 1 vote, he finds himself in a position where he NEEDS to poll in order to win. And with easy competition in West Coast this week, Judd and Pendles need to be aware that Ablett is fully capable of polling anywhere between 1-3.

• Polls 3 votes: 

1. He will win outright if either Pendles and/or Judd poll less than 3 votes.
2. He will be joint winner with Pendles and/or Judd if they poll 2 votes.

•  Polls 2 votes:

1. He will be outright winner if either Pendles and/or Judd poll no votes.
2. He will be joint winner with Pendles and/or Judd if they poll 1 vote.
   
3. He will lose if Judd polls 2 votes.
4. He will lose if Pendlebury polls 2 votes.
5. He will lose if Judd polls 3 votes.
6. He will lose if Pendlebury polls 3 votes.

• Polls 1 vote:

1. He will be joint winner only if both Pendles and Judd poll no votes, and/or Hodge polls less than 2 votes.

Previous Brownlow form in last 3 matches against West Coast:  6 votes from his previous 3 games against West Coast.

Luke Hodge (vs. Collingwood)

Hodge finds himself 2 votes off the pace, and to make matters worse he injured his knee this week and is in some doubt as to whether he'll take the field for Round 22. My guess is that the Hawks will err on the side of caution and choose to take the safe option by resting him in preparation for the first week of the finals - which will in effect rule him out of winning this years Brownlow medal. But if he does take the field, this is what he faces:

• Polls 3 votes:

1. He will win outright if Judd and Pendles poll no votes.
2. He will win outright if Ablett polls 1 vote or less.
3. He will be joint winner if Judd and Pendles poll 1 vote, and/or Ablett 2 votes.

•  Polls 2 votes:

1. He will be joint winner by relying on both Judd and Pendles polling no votes, and Ablett 1 or less.

• Polls 1 vote: 

1. As it stands currently, he will lose regardless of whoever polls. So he needs to poll at least 2 votes and hope other results fall his way.

Previous Brownlow form in last 3 matches against Collingwood:  3 votes from his previous 3 games.

Lenny Hayes (vs. Adelaide)

Lenny's Brownlow hopes were all but dashed when he failed to take his place in the side against Richmond last weekend, and left him in an almost impossible position at 3 votes behind the leaders. With 4 others in front of him, he needs to poll 3 votes and rely on each of them not polling a single vote. And the chances of that happening is pretty much zero, which is a shame because Hayes is one of my favourites and he was in with a decent shot leading into Round 21.

Previous Brownlow form in last 3 matches against Adelaide: 0 votes from his previous 3 games.

WTS's Verdict: 

So there we have it folks, that's the rundown for each of the 5 contenders. So, who do I think can win based on my phantom Brownlow tally I hear you ask? Well, it's just too close to call even this close out, so I might take the safe option and sit on the fence by not picking any one individual player. ;) What I will do, however, is narrow it down to Judd, Pendlebury, and Ablett. The winner will come from any other these 3 players, but personally I wouldn't mind seeing a tie, or another 3-way tie ala Buckley, Goodes, and Ricciuto.

Either way, the result is sure going to come down to the wire! Feel free to give me your thoughts on the final result below this blog entry, as i'd love to hear them!

Also, stay tuned in the weeks ahead as i'll be releasing my 'most team votes' leaderboard; full winner leaderboard; and of course when the 'most team votes' market is opened i'll be offering up my advice and value picks that I myself will be including in a few of my heinous multis. 4 weeks to go until the big night, and the excitement is building! I'm like a child at Christmas time!

Geelong V Carlton
3. J. Selwood
2. P. Chapman
1. G. Ablett

St. Kilda V Richmond
3. J. Riewoldt
2. L. Montagna
1. N. Dal Santo

Hawthorn V Fremantle
3. S. Burgoyne
2. S. Mitchell
1. C. Rioli

Collingwood V Adelaide
3. S. Pendlebury
2. S. Thompson
1. D. Thomas

Sydney V Western Bulldogs
3. K. Jack
2. T. Dennis-Lane
1. J. Bolton

Port Adelaide V Melbourne
3. T. Boak
2. J. Schulz
1. D. Cassisi

Essendon V Brisbane
3. J. Brown
2. M. Rischitelli
1. S. Black

West Coast V North Melbourne
3. A. Swallow
2. D. Wells
1. D. Cox

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Round 21 Leaderboard:
24 - C. Judd
24 - S. Pendlebury (+)
23 - G. Ablett (+)
22 - L. Hodge
21 - L. Hayes
20 – J. Selwood (+)
18 - D. Swan

Note: (*) Ineligible. (+) Ranking Rise. (-) Ranking Drop.