2010 Brownlow Player Preview: Sam Mitchell

Name: Sam Mitchell
Club: Hawthorn
2009 Brownlow Performance: Equal 13th
Total Votes: 13
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
2, 2, 3
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: Top 5
Brownlow Odds: $13 (Courtesy of TAB)

The Hawks captain ended up level on votes with his Hawks com-padre Sewell, along with Bartel, Montagna, Pendlebury, and Vince. So whilst it looks as though he finished way back in the pack, he did however share 13th possie alongside pretty decent company. And given he was the Hawks' equal top vote getter for 2009 - with Hodge the next best on 7 - one could suggest that if the Hawks can replicate their form of 2008, Mitchell and Sewell will be the two players the umps will give their votes to, with both Mitchell and Sewell having finished in the top 3 votegetters for that season as well.

So what of Sammy's 2009 season?

I don't think he did much wrong, particularly in the early part of the season, which is justified by the 7 votes he scored within the first 5 rounds. Statistically he had a better season than 2008, averaging 29.7 disposals, compared to 27.8, so you'd have thought he would've performed better at the Brownlow and perhaps built upon the 15 votes he scored in the year previous.

One possible explanation for this is by looking at the Hawks' season, and noting the correlation between those matches the Hawks won and those in which Mitchell was awarded votes. Hawthorn ended up winning a total of 9 matches, and in 5 of those Mitchell was given votes - meaning for each match the Hawks won, he had over a 50% chance of receiving a vote. This shows a small correlation, which is nothing to hang your hat on, but it suggests that if the Hawks had won a similar number of matches to that of 2008, Mitchell quite possibly could have finished within the top 4.

I have a feeling the Hawks will come out firing on the back of a disappointing year, and Sammy will be the one leading the charge. Opposition teams found out last season that Sewell can be just as damaging as Mitchell, so perhaps they will instead throw their best tagger on him at different stages throughout a game, allowing Mitchell some space. If so, watch him tear season 2010 apart, because he is clearly in Hawthorn's top 2 players.