Name: Lenny Hayes
Club: St. Kilda
2009 Brownlow Performance: 3rd
Total Votes: 20
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1:
6, 0, 2
Predicted 2010 Brownlow Finish: 1-4
Brownlow Odds: $21 (Courtesy of TAB)
Lenny's performance at the Brownlow in 2009 was nothing less than outstanding. Leading up to the Brownlow, nearly every betting agency didn't give Hayes a look in at winning the medal, let alone having a chance at being St. Kilda's highest poller, with odds of $8.00 being bandied about for him to top the votes. Believe it or not he was fifth favorite in that particular market, behind the likes of Dal Santo, Montagna, Goddard, and Riewoldt - all despite the fact that he received the most votes for the Saints in 2008. It was absolutely ridiculous! I must admit, much of the money i made last year on the Brownlow can be attributed to this bloke and the sheer craziness of the bookies that were offering the juicy odds. Incorporating his $8.00 into a few 8 leg multis and watching them get up, made me one happy man that night.
You may have noticed i've placed him within the prediction bracket of 1-4. The fact is, he is one player other than Ablett who i truly believe can win it outright, although with rumours circulating early on in the Pre-Season that he may have sustained 'hot spots' in his foot, it doesn't exactly fill you with confidence that he'll be able to play out the season. Whilst the Saints' coaching staff have assured us that he was only suffering from a strained calf, you still must wonder where these rumours came from and if they had any merit.
If the man to beat in Ablett sustains an injury, or experiences a sudden drop in form, and Lenny is able to carry over his form of last season into this one, sans injury, then i'd rate him a very solid chance. But given his injury history, particularly in the past 3 seasons, i'd say injury (rather than form) would be his only downfall if he were to miss out again in 2010.
But the thing to love about Lenny is he is ultra consistent, and can individually tear a game apart when it's in the balance - moreso than Dal Santo or Montagna, IMHO. His last quarter performance in the GF last year is testament to that. The problem is, many got caught up in the media hype surrounding both of the aforementioned players, allowing Hayes to be overshadowed. But if his form between rounds 5-11 indicate anything, it's that when he's hot the umpires take note. Over the course of those 7 rounds, he was BOG in 5 of them, and scored a massive 16 votes out of a possible 21 (R6 he failed to register a vote, and R9 he only received 1 vote). Also keep in mind Hayes received the second most 3 vote games, 6 in total, behind Ablett with 8. It's this form that i believe can take him all the way to winning a Brownlow medal in the near future.
Personally, he's one i'll be keeping a close eye on throughout the 2010 season, and i'm sure the bookies will as well on the back of their blunder in underestimating him last season.
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