'Multi-ing aint easy, yo!' - Analysis & Breakdown of odds released for TAB's 'Most Team Votes' market.

Aaaand i'm spent! From about mid day yesterday when news broke that the TAB had posted up their market for 'most team votes', i've since been frantically smashing out as many multis as I could in order to capitalise on the early value.

As you would've seen in my previous blog entry below, there was some serious value to be had, and as a result some of this value has been slashed slightly because everyone has been making the most of it. Good work lads! The most notable changes include:

Boak: WAS $6.00 --> NOW $4.00.

Green: WAS $5.50 --> NOW $3.

Brown: WAS $1.60 --> NOW $1.55.
Thompson: WAS $1.40 --> NOW $1.35

Brown: WAS $1.60 --> NOW $1.55

Watson: WAS $1.65 --> NOW $1.60

Boyd: WAS $4.50 --> NOW $4.00

I've taken it a little easier today, analysing my different combinations and trying to cover myself as much as I could for those teams that I think have only 2 players that could win their teams most votes. Below I shall give my thoughts on each of the teams; who am I entrusting to be my 'locks/anchors'; who offers value; which are the teams where the winner can be narrowed down to 2 players?

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Adelaide:

THOMPSON Scott (ADEL) $1.35

DOUGLAS Richard (ADEL) $6.50

NOTES: I'm treating Thompson as one of my locks. However, out of those 3-4 players i'm treating as locks, Thompson is one I still hold small reservations about in regards to him being a resounding winner at Adelaide, and particularly given his direct competition in Douglas has had his best season to date and is a relative unknown at the Brownlow. I will be using Thompson in 90% or so of my multi's but will cover myself by including Douglas in a few if an upset does occur. Verdict: Thompson

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Brisbane:

BROWN Jonathan (BL)  $1.55

RISCHITELLI Michael  $17

NOTES: Brown is the second of those group of players i've classified as a lock. Like Thompson, he does have a threat - albeit quite minor - in Rischitelli who is quoted as 4th favourite behind Black and Brennan to beat Brown. In my eyes Rischitelli has the greatest chance of these players to do so, and as such, have put Rischitelli in one or two and even omitted Brown/Brisbane from a few 5/6 leg multis in case an upset occurs. But I will reiterate that the threat to me is quite small and is a lesser chance at getting toppled than Thompson, but it's better safe than sorry! Verdict: Brown.

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Carlton:

JUDD Chris (CARL) $1.02

NOTES: Juddy is as safe as houses, and his odds rightly so reflect just that. Pity his odds aren't closer to $1.05-$1.10 to at least bump some value into your combined multi odds. Biggest lock by a country mile! Verdict: Judd.

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Collingwood:

SWAN Dane (COLL) $1.18

PENDLEBURY Scott (COLL)  $4.50

NOTES: As we saw last year, many people got fooled by the allure of Swan's odds and got whacked when he ultimately got beaten by Pendlebury. I have a funny feeling that history will repeat this year, and because of this I believe Pendlebury offers very good value at $4.50. On the whole i'll be steering clear of the Collingwood market altogether as I did successfully last year, but it's worthwhile tacking Pendles onto the end of some of your multi combo's to make the most of his value if he does happen to get up. Verdict: Line-ball call. If I had to choose: Pendlebury

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Essendon:

WATSON Jobe (ESS) $1.60

WINDERLICH Jason (ESS)  $15

NOTES: Watson is my second biggest lock behind Judd. He's performed out of his skin this year in what was a very ordinary side in Essendon this year. Winderlich is still value if you happen to think that you need to cover yourself with him, so it might be worthwhile putting him as a saver in a 3 leg multi given his massive long odds. But i'm hopeful in relying on Watson to come through with the goods! Verdict: Watson.

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Fremantle:

SANDILANDS Aaron (FREM) $1.40

BARLOW Michael (FREM)  $3.25

PAVLICH Matthew (FREM)$17

NOTES: This has to be one of the hardest teams to pick, and IMO could be won by any 3 of those players listed. On the one hand I think that perhaps Barlow has done enough to win prior to getting injured, whilst Sandilands still polls well for a ruckman and there's no doubting Pavlich polling history. This is a no go zone for me. Pavlich offers rediculous odds though. Verdict: Line-ball decision. If I had to choose: Barlow.

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Geelong:

ABLETT Gary (GEEL) $1.22

SELWOOD Joel (GEEL) $6.50

BARTEL Jimmy (GEEL)$11

NOTES: If one thing is for sure you cannot afford to underestimate the great Gazza when it comes to the Brownlow. Being the reigning Brownlow medalist, there's no doubting his polling history, but if the 'post-brownlow blues' occurs and Ablett doesn't poll as expected, then i'd say Selwood will be the next in line to top the votes down at Geelong. I'll be steering clear of Geelong, but perhaps add Selwood into 1-2 multis for the value alone. Verdict: No go zone. If I had to choose: Ablett.

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Hawthorn:

HODGE Luke (HAW) $1.15

MITCHELL Sam (HAW)  $13

NOTES: Given his steller year, you'd imagine Hodge is a shoe in to take out most votes at Hawks. I'm not so sure. Whilst I too think he'll win it confortably - and even finish in the top 5 for the Brownlow - there is a part of me that says he's just not worth the risk including him in your multis given his very short odds. His polling history isn't too favourable, and given this think I will pass on him. Verdict: Hodge.

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Melbourne:

GREEN Brad (MELB) $3

SYLVIA Colin (MELB)  $4

NOTES: This is one of those teams where the winner can be narrowed down to 2 players. Furthermore, this is the one that offers the most value given the are both $3 and $4, so if you alternate them in your multis, you'll still come out on top. I believe the winner will come from these 2 players, but cannot split them. Verdict: Sylvia... JUST!

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North Melbourne:

HARVEY Brent (NM) $1.40

SWALLOW Andrew (NM) $4.00

NOTES: This is yet another team where the winner can be narrowed down to 2 players. Whilst they don't offer as much value as that of Green/Sylvia, Swallow is a big show at knocking off Harvey and at $4.00 he's worth a shot. Thus, it's worthwhile alternating them in your multis for cover. Verdict: Swallow... JUST!


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Port Adelaide:

CASSISI Domenic (PORT)  $2.50
BOAK Travis (PORT) $4.50

NOTES: Like the previous two teams, here is another one that can be narrowed down to 2. Boak has smashed it this year and led from the front, whilst Cassisi has had a very solid year also. For me, Boak played a better contested game than Cassisi, and given the latters poor polling history, Boak gets the nod for me by a few votes. Verdict: Boak.

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Richmond:

RIEWOLDT Jack (RICH) $1.90

DELEDIO Brett (RICH)  $2.75

NOTES: This is another no-go zone for me. Anything can happen, and anyone can win. Can you trust a KPP forward who has had his first breakout season and no real polling history to go by, or someone who didn't poll as close to what people expected he would last year. All these variables to consider, with no real value means it's a pass for me. Verdict: If I had to choose: Deledio by 1 vote.

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St. Kilda:

GODDARD Brendon (STK) $2.25

HAYES Lenny (STK) $2.75

MONTAGNA Leigh (STK) $4.00

DAL SANTO Nick (STK) $15

NOTES: Remember how I said Freo was the hardest team to predict for 'most team votes'... well scratch that because I completely forgot about St. Kilda! Whilst I personally think Hayes will win it for the Saints, it could turn out closer than I think and am not confident enough to use him in a lot of my multis. Verdict: Hayes.

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Sydney:

GOODES Adam (SYD) $1.35

JACK Kieran (SYD) $7

NOTES: Very confident these 2 players will slug it out for the honours. Goodes has an awesome polling history backing him, whilst Jack is the new kid on the block that smashed the competition with a handful of BOG performances in the last quarter of the season. At odds of $7, Jack is worth a flutter and is every chance at knocking off Goodes if the umps happen to mark his game harder. Goodes should take it out if history is anything to go by, but in no way am I using him as an anchor/lock like I have in the past. Verdict: Goodes.

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Western Bulldogs:

COONEY Adam (WBDG) $2.50

BOYD Matthew (WBDG) $4.00

NOTES: Boyd and Coondog should be going head-to-head, and it should be a tight battle. Coin toss here, however I have a better feeling about Boyd moreso than Cooney, but will be using both in various multis. Verdict: Boyd.

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West Coast:

PRIDDIS Matt (WCE) $1.45

LECRAS Mark (WCE)  $3.50

NOTES: Never trust the team that finishes last. We saw what happened last year at Richmond when Richo won ahead of the favourite in Deledio in what was one of the biggest shocks at the Brownlow of 09. Too many things can go wrong, and all it takes is for one player to miss polling in a game that they were expected to and they could lose. Verdict: Priddis.