Club: Carlton
2010 Brownlow Performance: Winner!
WTS's 2010 Pre-Season Prediction: 2-3 CLOSE!
Total Votes: 30
Games Polled: 12
Games Played: 19
Total Votes Breakdown: 8, 2, 2
Brownlow Odds: $9 (Courtesy of TAB)
Well, where to begin? Some would call him an umpires pet, others would call him a champion player of our time and a worthy recipient of 2 Brownlow Medals. Whether you're on either ends of the spectrum, one can't deny the fact that he still remains one of the best players in the competition. And to come back and win the 2010 Brownlow Medal despite missing the first 3 rounds is testament to that fact.
So, the question remains: can the Juddmeister go back-to-back, and write himself into the history books to sit alongside the likes of other past champions such as Bobby Skilton, Dick Reynolds, Haydn Bunton, and Ian Stewart, in having won 3 Brownlow medals - the most in VFL/AFL.
But before you ponder that, just how did Judd manage to win the medal in 19 games? Let me break it down for you...
First off, he polled the most 3 vote games in the competition, amassing 3 votes in a whopping 8 games - way ahead of the next best with 5 (Ablett/Pendlebury/Hayes). The one thing this indicates, if anything, is that he was the absolute stand out player for Carlton. To put this in greater context, the only other players for Carlton that recieved 3 votes were Simpson, Gibbs, and Scotland, each obtaining only one 3 vote game apiece.
Secondly, Judd smashed all records by obtaining 3 votes in 5 consecutive games (Rnds 4-8)! Yep, that's right, 15 votes in the space of 5 games - meaning he scored half of his total 30 votes in that streak of games alone. On the night, at that point in the count he was a considerable margin a head of the rest and a near certain lock to win the medal. I recall during the pre-season in 2010 in my write up of Judd I reminded people not to underestimate Judd despite the fact he was missing the first 3 games of the season. In my write up back then I alluded to his injury riddled 2007 season when he played 19 games, and yet polled 16 votes in the first 8 games. Fact of the matter is this is a bloke that can poll a handful of votes within the space of only a few games, and it was this very reason why I warned people to write him off.
Thirdly, he polled in 12 out of the 19 games he played; meaning he polled at an average of 2.5 votes a game. A fair stat in itself, if you ask me.
So, let us harp back to the original question; is he capable of winning back-to-back Brownlows, and claiming his 3rd overall? Obviously it would stupid to write him off in light of what i've just said, and besides, it'd be ignorant to state that he couldn't replicate his feats of last year given he is after all the reigning Brownlow Medallist. However, one thing that must be factored in to the equation is that you'd expect either of Murphy or Gibbs, or if not both, will step up and take their game to the next level - particularly Gibbs, given there's talk Ratten will give him more time in the midfield. Given this, i'd say it's only fair to assume Gibbs and Murphy will be stealing votes off Judd, therefore making him less chance of being a runaway winner ala. 2010. But who's to say whether or not the umpires will change their stance in distributing the votes? They could still continue to give Judd the 3 votes even if either Gibbs or Murphy step it up and have awesome games to rival that of Judd.
It'll be interesting to see how it unfolds, but even if Gibbs or Murphy steal votes off Judd, i'd say he's still a chance to garner enough votes to win his 3rd Brownlow Medal. But that too is dependent on the dominance of Pendlebury, Selwood, and Boyd in their respective sides - who I can all see matching it with Judd on overall votes.
**Predicted 2011 Brownlow Finish: 1st-3rd**
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