Not since Adam Cooney took home the Charlie in 2008 has a
player won the Brownlow at 22 years of age or younger. Prior to that, Chris
Judd did likewise back in 2004, as a 20 year old, winning the medal in
remarkably only his third season in the system. Could another 22 year old in
Trent Cotchin join the likes of the two aforementioned players by claiming the
Brownlow in 2012?
Since being selected as the number 2 draft pick in 2007,
Cotchin’s rise to prominence has been nothing short of extraordinary. After
battling a spate of different injuries in his first couple of seasons, he was
finally able to string together a full season last year and show the
footballing world why he was taken so high in the draft. That was further
exemplified by his performance on Brownlow night, where he accumulated a total
15 votes and took out the honour as the highest polling Richmond player for
2011 ahead of his much more fancied, and equally as exciting teammate Dustin Martin.
In 2012, he’s averaged an impressive 27.5 possessions as
game, and was most recently awarded the 2012 AFL Coaches' Association Champion Player of
the Year ahead of Dayne Beams, Gary Ablett and Patrick Dangerfield. Last night
he also added to his trophy collection by winning the 2012 Richmond Best &
Fairest Award.
The question is, can he go from polling 15 votes in
one season, to needing to poll 30+ votes to command a winning position come
Brownlow night in 2012?
The one thing working against him is related to one
theory I am a firm believer of, which is that traditionally it takes a player
at least one decent breakout season before they are a chance to win the medal.
Take a look at Marc Murphy last season, for example; he played arguably his
best season to date and had a breakout season to boot. What this did was thrust
him into the spotlight and into the minds of umpires; an effect that is carried
into future seasons, but one that is rarely seen to pay immediate dividends in
the form of a high % of votes in the initial breakout season.
Whilst many punters and media outlets were touting him
as an outside medal chance in 2011, and predicting he’d poll 25+ votes on the
night, in reality he polled an underwhelming 19 votes. The reason behind such
underpolling can be narrowed down to those games where many thought he’d poll 3
votes, but instead was given 1 or 2. Going by my own phantom Brownlow count
from last year, this occurred on 3 occasions, and accounts for 6 lost votes
alone. In 2 out of 3 of those matches, the top votes went to the more seasoned,
experienced veteran in Chris Judd.
What this indicates is that the umpires will instead
opt to give the top votes to the more experienced players with a track record
for receiving Brownlow votes, and exemplifies why I abide by the aforementioned
‘breakout season’ theory. What does work in Cotchin’s favour, however, is the
fact that neither of his direct competition for votes at Richmond, and more
experienced teammates – Tuck and Deledio
– have a favorable polling history. Both players have failed to poll over 10
votes in any one season, and to highlight how low their polling proficiency is,
take a look at this; Deledio is averaging 4.57 votes a season across his past 7
seasons, whilst Tuck is even worse with an average of 3.12 votes a season in
the past 8. It’d be a fair assumption, though, to assume Deledio will finally
break that 10 vote barrier for the first time in his career, after being given
a more commanding role in the midfield this year as opposed to languishing off
half-back or in the forward line like seasons past.
If Cotchin can command the top votes where he’s
expected to get them, and doesn’t have them stolen away by the likes of Deledio
and Tuck, it’ll go some way towards deciding whether he too can match the feats
of Cooney and Judd of recent years.
PREDICTED FINISH: 1st – 5th.
EXPECTED TOTAL VOTES POLLED: 23 – 30 votes.
NUMBER OF GAMES EXPECTED TO POLL VOTES: 13 – 16
games.
Lay Cotchin for a Top 3/5 finish seems to be the wise thing to do.
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