2011 Brownlow Player Preview: Gary Ablett

Name: Gary Ablett

Club: Gold Coast

2010 Brownlow Performance: 2nd

WTS's 2010 Pre-Season Prediction: 1-2 ✔

Total Votes: 26

Games Polled: 13

Games Played: 21

Total Votes Breakdown: 5, 3, 5

Brownlow Odds: $11 (Courtesy of TAB)

It was only 2 years ago now, that Ablett - a much loved son at Geelong - had been awarded his first Brownlow Medal, and was on the verge of tasting premiership success for the second time in his career. Fast forward to the present day and it's still quite hard to believe that Ablett has left Geelong and is now the captain of a brand new franchise in the Gold Coast Suns. Well, if you factor in the money they were throwing at him I guess it isn't too hard to fathom, but who would've thunk it a mere 2 years ago? If a week is a long time in football, then 2 years is an eternity!

But will it be a case of new state, new club, new captain, new Brownlow for ye' ol Gazza Ablett in 2011?

That in itself would be a massive ask of him, given history suggests otherwise. Whilst Gold Coast may be good enough to avoid finishing last, he faces an uphill battle to win the Charlie playing for a team that will almost odds on finish outside the top 8. Here are some noteworthy stats for you:

• Since the inception of the award in 1924, only 3 players have won the Brownlow in seasons when their teams finished in the bottom tier of the ladder. These were; 

1. Kelvin Templeton in 1980, when the Bulldogs managed a mere 5 wins and finished third last.
2. Peter Moore in 1984, when Melbourne won 9 games and finished fourth last.
3. Paul Kelly in 1995, when Sydney won only 8 games and finished fifth last.
4. And most recently, in 1999, Shane Crawford took home the honours, when the Hawks won 10 games and narrowly missed out on the top 8 to finish 9th.

But you'll find from the 1980s up until now, umpires have increasingly been shying away from giving votes to players in a losing team and instead giving more votes in favour of those in the winning team.

• From 1984-1991, losing teams received 11.5 per cent of three votes.
• From 1992-99, that figure dropped to 9.9 per cent.
• And from 2000-07, it slipped a further 7.9 per cent.

Of course, in light of these figures, the chances of Ablett taking home another Charlie in 2011 look rather slim. The only chance he has is perhaps sneaking a handful of 2 votes in losing games. But again, this isn't anything to hang your hat on given he only polled in 3 out of 7 losses in 2010. However, you must remember that he was vying for votes alongside the likes of Bartel, Selwood et. al. during his time at Geelong, and given he's going to be hands down the best player for the Gold Coast it isn't out of the realms of possibility that he'll poll in a greater number of losses

But in a couple of years time when the Suns begin to make the finals, I wouldn't be surprised to see him win another Charlie when he'll be snagging all of the votes left, right and centre ala. Judd this year when he was the standout player for Carlton. Until then though, i'd say it'd be a fair effort if Ablett finished in the Top 5 this year.


** Predicted 2011 Brownlow Finish: 5-7 **

2011 Brownlow Player Preview: Dane Swan

Name: Dane Swan
Club: Collingwood
2010 Brownlow Performance: 3rd
WTS's 2010 Pre-Season Prediction: 7-10th X
Total Votes: 24 
Games Polled: 12 
Games Played: 22
Total Votes Breakdown, 3 2 1: 2, 8, 2 
Brownlow Odds: $7 (Courtesy of TAB)

When I think of this bloke in Brownlow terms, I think of two words; Groundhog Day. Hence the reason why I prefer to call him Dane Groundhog.

I remember coming into season 2010 people were singing his praises, claiming the umpires were going to finally ‘cave’ and give him votes because he under polled the year before. Moreso, as we approached Brownlow night a groundswell of popular opinion jumped on his bandwagon and claimed that because the media had widely publicized his efforts throughout the year and predicted that he’d be almost a ‘lock’ for the 2010 Brownlow Medal, that this would therefore mean it was almost inevitable that this was going to become a reality. Of course, we all know what happened. Without blowing my own trumpet… or would that be sax?

Diiii-di-di-di-di-diiii-di (Video Link)

Ahem, where was I? Oh yes, as I was saying, without blowing my own trumpet I was one of the few who went against this popular train of thought from the get go. During the 2010 Pre-Season, in my Dane Swan player preview some of you may recall me saying:

“Swan was an absolute ball magnet last year (2009), dead set you wouldn't blame the man had he got leather poisoning. He was racking up possessions at will to such an extent that people starting judging his game by the amount of possies he had.”

Of course, this is the exact trap that many people have fallen into 2 years in a row now. No matter how much the media beats on about how many possessions he gets, it isn’t going to change the umpire’s minds. It’s a simple fact, which has rung true over consecutive years now. The thing you must remember is stats don’t show how and where in the field of play Swan has gathered his possessions. This is one of the central rules when it comes to analyzing a player's performance in Brownlow terms.

This relates to where I went on to say:

“If anything, Swan is a prime example to any punter out there that may be under the belief that the amount of possessions a player gets will therefore correlate to Brownlow votes. Because quite simply, this isn't necessarily the case. I am a big believer that umpires favour those midfielders whose strength in their game is the ability to get their own contested footy and create the play. If you look at the amount of possessions Swan gathered, in relation to the amount of those that were contested, you'll see he falls under that bracket of players I like to call 'link men receivers'. Out of the total 700 possessions he racked up - the best of any player - only 227 of those were contested. This means that only 32.42% of his possessions were contested, whilst 67.58% were uncontested.

The interesting thing though, is that Ablett didn't fair much better for this statistic, and yet he won the Brownlow medal. So what gives? The way i see it, i consider Ablett more of a playmaker whose possessions directly influence games, thereby catching the eye of the umps. On the other hand, I classify Swan to be more of a linkman who is usually the second or third link in a string of play that involves the ball being passed to multiple players before the last player in that link creates the play and either sets up a goal or has a forward 50 entry. Thus, so whilst Swan racks up a ton of possessions, he is seen by the umpire as a linkman rather than a playmaker and therefore fails to impress the men in white.”

In simpler terms, another way of saying this is that Swan doesn’t quite stand out as a damaging player to the umpire, unlike the aforementioned Judd or Ablett. A simple comparison in the number of votes Judd polled in Carlton wins to that of which Swan polled when Collingwood won highlights this very discrepancy. Judd polled in 9 out of 10 wins (90%), whilst Swan polled in 10 out of 17 wins (58%). You may disagree with me, and by all means you can, but to me that says Judd plays more of a direct influence in the outcome of those games where Carlton recorded a win, whereas Swan plays more of a ‘bit-man’ part in turning games in the favour of the Pies. The other factor you must weigh up is that other players, particularly of the likes of Pendlebury and Didak, will steal votes of Swan and stand out more.

And then there is of course the argument that Swan’s footballing style is rather unorthodox and that he doesn’t possess the same poise, and class as that of Judd, Ablett, or even Pendlebury. Or even more out there, is the claim that perhaps the umpires are of the opinion that his sleeve tattoos aren't exactly a glowing endorsement for the game, and particularly not the sort of image a Brownlow Medalist should provide.

Given these points, I will once again reiterate and stand by what I said last pre-season:

“Unless Swan alters his game somewhat to mirror that of say an Ablett, or Judd, who make every one of their possessions count, his 700 possessions a season will amount to nothing come Brownlow night. But until then, i'm not convinced.” 

Will history repeat itself again? You be the judge!


** Predicted 2011 Brownlow Finish: 3-5 **

"It begiiins!" Brownlow Talk 2011 Officially Kicks-off!

Well, hello ladies and gents, and welcome once more to Brownlow Talk 2011!

I hope your offseason was plentiful, and you didn't get up to as much mischief as those down at St. Kilda... or performed the 'worm' across the top of any taxis ala. Andrew Hooper in Hong Kong. Just on that, why are people chastising the man? If anything that man deserves more credit for pulling that move off. But I digress!

As some of you may have already noticed, over the off-season i've given the site an overhaul and changed up a few aspects. Consider it Brownlow Talk 2.0. I bet Dustin Martin wishes he came back from the off-season looking in just as good a shape... or that he never went ahead with that crazy neck tattoo. Ba-dum-cheesh!

So what's changed I hear you ask? Well, learned reader, apart from the site looking more 'schlimming' with the black background, I also put my mad Adobe Paint Shop Pro skillz to the test and put together a semi-professional banner. Actually, it was more an excuse to continually take the piss out of Eddie by plastering his vengeful looking face across my blog, as it gives me great joy each time I see how spiteful he was towards the one and only C. Judd winning the 2010 Brownlow. Plus, I think the redness in his face offsets the more darker aspects of the banner and gives it a certain feng shui. Although, it is alarming to notice that his face is only a couple of shades off being as red as the '2011'.

Reminds me a little of this photo that was doing the rounds a few years back:

Derp de derp.

Anyhoo! You'll also notice a major addition to the blog for Season 2011, in the form of a chatroom located just below the banner. I'll be checking in now and again, and most probably stop in every Wed/Thurs for some discussion and Q&A after I post my weekly spiel. I hope to see some of you on there sometime throughout the year!

As the NAB Cup begins this Friday, 11th, i'll begin posting my player previews for some of the top fancied Brownlow favs. And for those that like a speculative pre-season Brownlow bet, i'll be treating you with a rundown as to which of the various betting agencies are offering the best odds on the top 50 players quoted.

Ahhh yes! It's good to have footy back, oh how i've missed your longing embrace!

It's coming... Brownlow Talk 2011.

Stay tuned, folks, as Brownlow Talk 2011 will be kicking into next gear come the start of Pre-Season on Feb 11, and it promises a few goodies to whet your appetites for the season ahead.

So what do we have in store? Well, like last year, i'll be giving you a run down of the players to keep your eye on throughout the season, and give you my insight into who's showing the better form throughout the pre-season. I will also be announcing my 'crystal ball' predictions where I attempt to predict where some of the more fancied players could finish come the night of nights in mid September. It's all in the name of fun of course, because lets face it, i'm no Nostradamus... or am I? Either way, at the end of it all, it's always fun to look back at how you rated certain players and how close your predictions were to the real thing. I'll also reveal how close I came with a few of my pre-season predictions last year. Pretty eerie actually, if I do say so myself!

So what doth thou have in store for the season proper, you say? Let's just say that Brownlow Talk will provide you with some of the most comprohensive Brownlow, and all around football analysis you'll get, covering each and every round, game by game. Take that Hutchy! If I find I have enough time I will even attempt to provide a run down of each of the 8 games each week, accompanied with the players I thought should figure in the 3, 2, 1 votes for those games. Either way you can expect to see much of the same tasty 'round wrap-ups' as per last season. And as we enter the juicy end of the season and approach the big night, i'll be providing you with an insight into some of the value bets (hopefully) provided by the numerous bookies.

Well, we have exactly 29 days until all of us footy tragics get our first taste of the great game in action for 2011. Until then i'll leave you with my Brownlow remix of the song "Talkin' Baseball" by Terry Cashman, or otherwise more widely known as the "Talkin' Softball" song on the Simpsons. I think it sums up the 2010 Brownlow in perfect style. Enjoy!

We're Talkin' Brownlow.

Well Chris Judd had done it; the Brownlow, he'd won it
With Eddie Maguire cursing all the while
Swannies shortfall made us punters smile
But it was the 'Most Team Votes' that made the night all worthwhile
We're talkin' Brownlow
From Hayes to Scott Thompson
Talkin' Brownlow
From Boak to Jobe Watson
If Sylvia managed to get one more vote
We really would've cleaned out the Tote
We're talkin' Brownlow
With Juddy and Co. ©

Congratulations, Chris Judd - Winner of the 2010 Brownlow Medal!

Wowee! What can I say, except what a massive Brownlow count that was! It simply had everything! Here is just some of what transpired on that fateful night:

• Judd proving the numerous pundits, who didn't rate him a chance, wrong by claiming his second Brownlow Medal.
• A massive polling performance to the goliath in Sandilands, who shot out to the lead early on in the count and eventually finished on a very modest 20 votes for a big man.
• Ablett's slow start to the season in what many thought were a massive few games where he'd poll very well.
• Judd's 5 (Yes, 5!!) BOG 3 vote games in a row, after returning from suspension in Round 4.
• Swan coming up short yet again, with a Top 5 finish to Pendlebury after a great polling performance.
• Hodge not living up to expectations, to finish outside the Top 5.

First off, I must give my very warm congratulations to the man, the myth, the legend, that is Chris Judd. Can you believe the bookies rated him a $21 outsider to take home the medal leading into the count, and $32 (which later lengthened to $51) for the Judd/Ablett Quinella?! Well, not me that's for sure, given I had him finishing a solitary vote away from taking home the medal in my phantom count. Not only did I get on him for the win, I also backed him to finish in the Top 5, AND I backed him in the Judd/Ablett Quinella! Huzzah! I hope some of you out there followed my lead and got on some of this easy money.

Also, some of you may fondly remember what I wrote in my pre-season player preview write up about Judd in this article: Player Preview: Chris Judd where I made the prophetic call that Judd is "one bloke you simply cannot underestimate". I alluded to his uncanny ability to poll votes from nowhere, and do so so effectively within the space of a few games, such as in his injury riddled 2007 season where he played 19 games, and yet polled 16 votes in the first 8 games?

This is what happened this year in his first 5 games in Rounds 4 - 8: 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 for a total of 15 votes in 5 games!! Without trying to sound too cocky, this is one of the few calls I made very early on which I am going to proudly hang my hat on, and reaffirms why Judd is my favourite player. The man is a freak!

To compare my count with that of the real one, below you'll see I have listed the real Top 10 Leaderboard, and alongside each player and the votes they polled I have listed in brackets the total votes I predicted they'd poll according to my phantom tally; and the difference in votes between the two tallies.

Brownlow Medal - Top 10.

Chris Judd - 30 (25/+5)
Gary Ablett - 26 (26/-)
Dane Swan - 24 (19/+5)
Scott Pendlebury - 21 (24/-3)
Joel Selwood - 21 (20/+1)

Matthew Boyd - 20 (16/+4)

Aaron Sandilands - 20 (13/+7)

Lenny Hayes - 19 (21/-2)

Luke Hodge - 16 (22/-6)

Leigh Montagna - 16 (14/+2)

As you can see straight away, there are a couple of discrepancies. The first of which is related to the number of votes I had Judd polling, which was even a surprise to me despite the fact I predicted him to poll 25 votes - which many had told me was a little high. Funnily enough, it turns out it was too low! ;P Despite this fact, I still had Judd finishing in the Top 2, so in terms of my positioning I wasn't too far off.

Sandilands was my biggest oversight by a mile, but i'm sure very few predicted he'd poll the way he did. It was simply a phenomenal effort by the big man, and off the top of my head his was the best polling performance there has been by a ruckman for a very long time, if ever.

I slightly underestimated Swan's polling performance, which I thought was the case when I finalized my tally after Round 22. If you compare my tally to that of the real one I predicted that Pendles would steal more votes off Swan, but on the whole I was nearly on the money in terms of the difference in votes between the two.

Hodge was another who underpolled compared to what I, and many others, had him finishing on. But I did state throughout the season that I was quite weary of Hodge given his history of back-chatting the umpires came back to bite him come Brownlow night - and the same occurred this year as well, despite enjoying his best season to date.

The only votes I got spot on were that of Ablett, who I had winning my count by 1 vote over Judd.

Apart from these particular players i'd say, on the whole, I was thereabouts in terms of vote predictions, but it could have been a little better.

Or another way to look at it is that of the players that finished in the Top 10, I correctly predicted 8/10, except Sandilands and Montagna who come in at the expense of Swallow and Bartel. Also, of those in the Top 5 I corretly tipped 3/5, with Selwood and Swan replacing Hodge and Hayes. The only problem is the order is muddled up! My tally is below for reference:

WTS's Brownlow Medal - Top 10.

G. Ablett - 26
C. Judd - 25
S. Pendlebury - 24
L. Hodge - 22
L. Hayes - 21
J. Selwood - 20
D. Swan - 19
A. Swallow - 17
M. Boyd - 16
J. Bartel - 16

In terms of my betting performance, well let's just say that 10k will make my life a little easier for the time being. On the whole I was very successful with my 'Most Team Vote' and 'Head to Head' multis, but my 'Group Votes' are what let me down a little. Overall, comparing my performance to that of last year, I improved my output x5, which has surpassed my expectations by a mile and was a much bigger improvement than what I was expecting, or even hoping for. What's even more crazy is the thought that I could have won more if Sylvia didn't tie for most votes at Melbourne, and Jack didn't tie for most votes in his group in the 'Group Votes' market.

Until next year, I hope you've enjoyed reading this blog throughout the season in what has been Brownlow Talk's first inaugural year of existence, and hope that it has perhaps helped you in some way to have a somewhat enjoyable and profitable night for the 2010 Brownlow count. The reality is this blog would've been nothing without the countless hits it has had over the course of the season, and if it weren't for you readers out there and the support you've provided I would've probably given up updating this blog very long ago. So thankyou! In the mean time, if you have any further questions, feedback, or even recommendations for this blog in Season 2011, feel free to reply below.

Cheers again! :)

The 2010 Brownlow Medal - "And now, the end is near. And so I face the final curtain"

Here it is! It's what we've all been waiting for, and it finally commences tonight at 7.30PM AEST! I haven't been this excited since, well... last year's Brownlow, but I sure do feel like a kid on Christmas Eve once again.

As this will be my last blog entry before the spectacle that is the Brownlow medal, i'd like to take this opportunity to wish all of my readers out there, and punters in general the best of luck, and I hope my blog has been somewhat informative and held you in good stead throughout the year. Let's hope we can all take the bookies to the cleaners and make a tidy profit come the end of tonight!

In signing off, I thought i'd leave you with the lyrics to Frank Sinatra's rendition of 'My Way', which I think is quite reminiscent of the trials and tribulations us hardcore Brownlow followers have faced in the lead up to tonight's main event. Sure, we've doubted ourselves, planned relentlessly, pondered over many a multi, but just have faith in your bets and regardless of what other opinions people may have, take solace in the fact that yes, "you did it your way".

"And now, the end is near,
And so I face the final curtain.
My friends, I'll say it clear;
I'll state my case of which I'm certain.


I've lived a life that's full -
I've travelled each and every highway.
And more, much more than this,
I did it my way.


Regrets? I've had a few,
But then again, too few to mention.
I did what I had to do
And saw it through without exemption.


I planned each charted course -
Each careful step along the byway,
And more, much more than this,
I did it my way.


Yes, there were times, I'm sure you knew,
When I bit off more than I could chew,
But through it all, when there was doubt,
I ate it up and spit it out.
I faced it all and I stood tall
And did it my way.


I've loved, I've laughed and cried,
I've had my fill - my share of losing.
But now, as tears subside,
I find it all so amusing.


To think I did all that,
And may I say, not in a shy way -
Oh no. Oh no, not me.
I did it my way.


For what is a man? What has he got?
If not himself - Then he has naught.
To say the things he truly feels
And not the words of one who kneels.
The record shows I took the blows
And did it my way.


Yes, it was my way."

"ArRrGhHh! Pressure point! Pressure point! Steven Seagal! Steven... HEY STEVEN!!" - Q&A Brownlow Talk with Walker.

With the holy grail that is the Brownlow Medal less than a week away, I thought i'd provide you - the readers - with a chance to ask any questions you may have regarding the Brownlow, and provide you with the space to discuss some of your thoughts leading up to what many have dubbed 'Christmas in September'. I know some of you have asked a few questions already in the Browlow ChatterBox located on the right hand side of the blog, but I thought it'd be easier to respond and order if all of the questions were collated within this space.

Got no questions? For the sake of hilarity, allow me to take you on trip down memory lane by taking a look at Fevola's awesome effort at the Brownlow last year.