2011 Brownlow Player Preview: Gary Ablett

Name: Gary Ablett

Club: Gold Coast

2010 Brownlow Performance: 2nd

WTS's 2010 Pre-Season Prediction: 1-2 ✔

Total Votes: 26

Games Polled: 13

Games Played: 21

Total Votes Breakdown: 5, 3, 5

Brownlow Odds: $11 (Courtesy of TAB)

It was only 2 years ago now, that Ablett - a much loved son at Geelong - had been awarded his first Brownlow Medal, and was on the verge of tasting premiership success for the second time in his career. Fast forward to the present day and it's still quite hard to believe that Ablett has left Geelong and is now the captain of a brand new franchise in the Gold Coast Suns. Well, if you factor in the money they were throwing at him I guess it isn't too hard to fathom, but who would've thunk it a mere 2 years ago? If a week is a long time in football, then 2 years is an eternity!

But will it be a case of new state, new club, new captain, new Brownlow for ye' ol Gazza Ablett in 2011?

That in itself would be a massive ask of him, given history suggests otherwise. Whilst Gold Coast may be good enough to avoid finishing last, he faces an uphill battle to win the Charlie playing for a team that will almost odds on finish outside the top 8. Here are some noteworthy stats for you:

• Since the inception of the award in 1924, only 3 players have won the Brownlow in seasons when their teams finished in the bottom tier of the ladder. These were; 

1. Kelvin Templeton in 1980, when the Bulldogs managed a mere 5 wins and finished third last.
2. Peter Moore in 1984, when Melbourne won 9 games and finished fourth last.
3. Paul Kelly in 1995, when Sydney won only 8 games and finished fifth last.
4. And most recently, in 1999, Shane Crawford took home the honours, when the Hawks won 10 games and narrowly missed out on the top 8 to finish 9th.

But you'll find from the 1980s up until now, umpires have increasingly been shying away from giving votes to players in a losing team and instead giving more votes in favour of those in the winning team.

• From 1984-1991, losing teams received 11.5 per cent of three votes.
• From 1992-99, that figure dropped to 9.9 per cent.
• And from 2000-07, it slipped a further 7.9 per cent.

Of course, in light of these figures, the chances of Ablett taking home another Charlie in 2011 look rather slim. The only chance he has is perhaps sneaking a handful of 2 votes in losing games. But again, this isn't anything to hang your hat on given he only polled in 3 out of 7 losses in 2010. However, you must remember that he was vying for votes alongside the likes of Bartel, Selwood et. al. during his time at Geelong, and given he's going to be hands down the best player for the Gold Coast it isn't out of the realms of possibility that he'll poll in a greater number of losses

But in a couple of years time when the Suns begin to make the finals, I wouldn't be surprised to see him win another Charlie when he'll be snagging all of the votes left, right and centre ala. Judd this year when he was the standout player for Carlton. Until then though, i'd say it'd be a fair effort if Ablett finished in the Top 5 this year.


** Predicted 2011 Brownlow Finish: 5-7 **