Congratulations, Chris Judd - Winner of the 2010 Brownlow Medal!

Wowee! What can I say, except what a massive Brownlow count that was! It simply had everything! Here is just some of what transpired on that fateful night:

• Judd proving the numerous pundits, who didn't rate him a chance, wrong by claiming his second Brownlow Medal.
• A massive polling performance to the goliath in Sandilands, who shot out to the lead early on in the count and eventually finished on a very modest 20 votes for a big man.
• Ablett's slow start to the season in what many thought were a massive few games where he'd poll very well.
• Judd's 5 (Yes, 5!!) BOG 3 vote games in a row, after returning from suspension in Round 4.
• Swan coming up short yet again, with a Top 5 finish to Pendlebury after a great polling performance.
• Hodge not living up to expectations, to finish outside the Top 5.

First off, I must give my very warm congratulations to the man, the myth, the legend, that is Chris Judd. Can you believe the bookies rated him a $21 outsider to take home the medal leading into the count, and $32 (which later lengthened to $51) for the Judd/Ablett Quinella?! Well, not me that's for sure, given I had him finishing a solitary vote away from taking home the medal in my phantom count. Not only did I get on him for the win, I also backed him to finish in the Top 5, AND I backed him in the Judd/Ablett Quinella! Huzzah! I hope some of you out there followed my lead and got on some of this easy money.

Also, some of you may fondly remember what I wrote in my pre-season player preview write up about Judd in this article: Player Preview: Chris Judd where I made the prophetic call that Judd is "one bloke you simply cannot underestimate". I alluded to his uncanny ability to poll votes from nowhere, and do so so effectively within the space of a few games, such as in his injury riddled 2007 season where he played 19 games, and yet polled 16 votes in the first 8 games?

This is what happened this year in his first 5 games in Rounds 4 - 8: 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 for a total of 15 votes in 5 games!! Without trying to sound too cocky, this is one of the few calls I made very early on which I am going to proudly hang my hat on, and reaffirms why Judd is my favourite player. The man is a freak!

To compare my count with that of the real one, below you'll see I have listed the real Top 10 Leaderboard, and alongside each player and the votes they polled I have listed in brackets the total votes I predicted they'd poll according to my phantom tally; and the difference in votes between the two tallies.

Brownlow Medal - Top 10.

Chris Judd - 30 (25/+5)
Gary Ablett - 26 (26/-)
Dane Swan - 24 (19/+5)
Scott Pendlebury - 21 (24/-3)
Joel Selwood - 21 (20/+1)

Matthew Boyd - 20 (16/+4)

Aaron Sandilands - 20 (13/+7)

Lenny Hayes - 19 (21/-2)

Luke Hodge - 16 (22/-6)

Leigh Montagna - 16 (14/+2)

As you can see straight away, there are a couple of discrepancies. The first of which is related to the number of votes I had Judd polling, which was even a surprise to me despite the fact I predicted him to poll 25 votes - which many had told me was a little high. Funnily enough, it turns out it was too low! ;P Despite this fact, I still had Judd finishing in the Top 2, so in terms of my positioning I wasn't too far off.

Sandilands was my biggest oversight by a mile, but i'm sure very few predicted he'd poll the way he did. It was simply a phenomenal effort by the big man, and off the top of my head his was the best polling performance there has been by a ruckman for a very long time, if ever.

I slightly underestimated Swan's polling performance, which I thought was the case when I finalized my tally after Round 22. If you compare my tally to that of the real one I predicted that Pendles would steal more votes off Swan, but on the whole I was nearly on the money in terms of the difference in votes between the two.

Hodge was another who underpolled compared to what I, and many others, had him finishing on. But I did state throughout the season that I was quite weary of Hodge given his history of back-chatting the umpires came back to bite him come Brownlow night - and the same occurred this year as well, despite enjoying his best season to date.

The only votes I got spot on were that of Ablett, who I had winning my count by 1 vote over Judd.

Apart from these particular players i'd say, on the whole, I was thereabouts in terms of vote predictions, but it could have been a little better.

Or another way to look at it is that of the players that finished in the Top 10, I correctly predicted 8/10, except Sandilands and Montagna who come in at the expense of Swallow and Bartel. Also, of those in the Top 5 I corretly tipped 3/5, with Selwood and Swan replacing Hodge and Hayes. The only problem is the order is muddled up! My tally is below for reference:

WTS's Brownlow Medal - Top 10.

G. Ablett - 26
C. Judd - 25
S. Pendlebury - 24
L. Hodge - 22
L. Hayes - 21
J. Selwood - 20
D. Swan - 19
A. Swallow - 17
M. Boyd - 16
J. Bartel - 16

In terms of my betting performance, well let's just say that 10k will make my life a little easier for the time being. On the whole I was very successful with my 'Most Team Vote' and 'Head to Head' multis, but my 'Group Votes' are what let me down a little. Overall, comparing my performance to that of last year, I improved my output x5, which has surpassed my expectations by a mile and was a much bigger improvement than what I was expecting, or even hoping for. What's even more crazy is the thought that I could have won more if Sylvia didn't tie for most votes at Melbourne, and Jack didn't tie for most votes in his group in the 'Group Votes' market.

Until next year, I hope you've enjoyed reading this blog throughout the season in what has been Brownlow Talk's first inaugural year of existence, and hope that it has perhaps helped you in some way to have a somewhat enjoyable and profitable night for the 2010 Brownlow count. The reality is this blog would've been nothing without the countless hits it has had over the course of the season, and if it weren't for you readers out there and the support you've provided I would've probably given up updating this blog very long ago. So thankyou! In the mean time, if you have any further questions, feedback, or even recommendations for this blog in Season 2011, feel free to reply below.

Cheers again! :)

The 2010 Brownlow Medal - "And now, the end is near. And so I face the final curtain"

Here it is! It's what we've all been waiting for, and it finally commences tonight at 7.30PM AEST! I haven't been this excited since, well... last year's Brownlow, but I sure do feel like a kid on Christmas Eve once again.

As this will be my last blog entry before the spectacle that is the Brownlow medal, i'd like to take this opportunity to wish all of my readers out there, and punters in general the best of luck, and I hope my blog has been somewhat informative and held you in good stead throughout the year. Let's hope we can all take the bookies to the cleaners and make a tidy profit come the end of tonight!

In signing off, I thought i'd leave you with the lyrics to Frank Sinatra's rendition of 'My Way', which I think is quite reminiscent of the trials and tribulations us hardcore Brownlow followers have faced in the lead up to tonight's main event. Sure, we've doubted ourselves, planned relentlessly, pondered over many a multi, but just have faith in your bets and regardless of what other opinions people may have, take solace in the fact that yes, "you did it your way".

"And now, the end is near,
And so I face the final curtain.
My friends, I'll say it clear;
I'll state my case of which I'm certain.


I've lived a life that's full -
I've travelled each and every highway.
And more, much more than this,
I did it my way.


Regrets? I've had a few,
But then again, too few to mention.
I did what I had to do
And saw it through without exemption.


I planned each charted course -
Each careful step along the byway,
And more, much more than this,
I did it my way.


Yes, there were times, I'm sure you knew,
When I bit off more than I could chew,
But through it all, when there was doubt,
I ate it up and spit it out.
I faced it all and I stood tall
And did it my way.


I've loved, I've laughed and cried,
I've had my fill - my share of losing.
But now, as tears subside,
I find it all so amusing.


To think I did all that,
And may I say, not in a shy way -
Oh no. Oh no, not me.
I did it my way.


For what is a man? What has he got?
If not himself - Then he has naught.
To say the things he truly feels
And not the words of one who kneels.
The record shows I took the blows
And did it my way.


Yes, it was my way."

"ArRrGhHh! Pressure point! Pressure point! Steven Seagal! Steven... HEY STEVEN!!" - Q&A Brownlow Talk with Walker.

With the holy grail that is the Brownlow Medal less than a week away, I thought i'd provide you - the readers - with a chance to ask any questions you may have regarding the Brownlow, and provide you with the space to discuss some of your thoughts leading up to what many have dubbed 'Christmas in September'. I know some of you have asked a few questions already in the Browlow ChatterBox located on the right hand side of the blog, but I thought it'd be easier to respond and order if all of the questions were collated within this space.

Got no questions? For the sake of hilarity, allow me to take you on trip down memory lane by taking a look at Fevola's awesome effort at the Brownlow last year.

'Go ahead, make my day!' - Release of Group Votes!

"I know what you're thinking: Did the TAB just quote Judd vs Goddard in the H2H at $2.00, or only $1.02? Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I've kinda lost track myself. But being as this is Chris Judd, one of the most powerful guns in the footballing world, and could still yet snatch Ablett's Brownlow clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk?"

Well, well, well, just when we thought all the value had been sapped away from the 'Most Team Votes' market - the likes of which many of us thought we'd never see again - the TAB comes to the rescue and bestows upon us the glorious Head to Head market that is Judd vs Goddard. And yes, believe it or not Judd has been installed as the outsider in that matchup at $2 up against Goddard at $1.75!!! WTF indeed! Oh, I feel lucky alright!

The beauty of this is that you can now use Judd as an 'anchor' for your Group Vote/H2H multis. ZING! Also, for that added bit of extra value, don't forget you can multi up your Group Vote bets with players from the Most Team Votes market - just as long as that same player doesn't feature in both of those 2 markets.

Here are the Groups, and please note the odds are obviously subject to change, so they may not be as accurate as first depicted here:

Group 1;

SWAN Dane (COLL) 1.90 $
ABLETT Gary (GEEL) 3.75 $
HODGE Luke (HAW) 6.00 $
JUDD Chris (CARL) 7.00 $
PENDLEBURY Sott (COLL) 9.00

Group 2;

SANDILANDS Aaron (FREM) 3.00 $
GODDARD Brendon (STK) 3.00 $
HARVEY Brent (NM) 4.50 $
HAYES Lenny (STK) 5.00 $
GOODES Adam (SYD) 5.50

Group 3;

FRANKLIN Lance (HAW) 3.00 $
CHAPMAN Paul (GEEL) 3.50 $
JACK Kieran (SYD) 3.50 $
BOLTON Jude (SYD) 5.50 $
RIOLI Cyril (HAW) 7.50 $

Group 4;

BROWN Jonathan (BL) 2.50 $
HALL Barry (WBDG) 4.00 $
MITCHELL Sam (HAW) 4.00 $
DAL SANTO Nick (STK) 5.50 $
PAVLICH Matthew (FREM) 7.00 $

Group 5;

BARLOW Michael (FREM) 2.50 $
BARTEL Jimmy (GEEL) 4.50 $
BOYD Matthew (WBDG) 4.50 $
THOMPSON Scott (ADEL) 4.50 $
SWALLOW Andrew (NM) 7.00 $

"So where's the breakdown, what's the value? I gots to knoooow!"

Out of those groups you'll notice i've highlighted those selections that I think are value in green. I won't be touching Group 1, as it is basically the same as betting on the 'Brownlow Winner' market at crappier odds. Hayes is awesome value in Group 2, but I wouldn't say he is a sure thing. I'm confident that Chapman or Jack will take the honours in Group 3, whilst in Group 4 Nicky Dal presents massive value at $5.50. He should be at the very least equal favourite with Brown IMO, but it will be a very tight group given I only have Dal Santo beating the quoted favourite in Brown by one solitary vote. Group 5 presents a no-go-zone to me, as I believe any one of those 5 can win it, but on value alone it might be worth looking at Swallow - but with very little confidence given the competition.

And here are the Head to Heads:

  

H2H 1: 

D. Swan $1.40 vs G. Ablett $2.80

H2h 2: 

L. Hodge $1.75 vs S. Pendlebury $2

H2H 3: 

C. Judd $2 vs B. Goddard $1.75

H2H 4:  

L. Hayes $1.75 vs A. Goodes $2

H2H 5: 

B. Harvey $1.87 vs J. Selwood $1.87

'Multi-ing aint easy, yo!' - Analysis & Breakdown of odds released for TAB's 'Most Team Votes' market.

Aaaand i'm spent! From about mid day yesterday when news broke that the TAB had posted up their market for 'most team votes', i've since been frantically smashing out as many multis as I could in order to capitalise on the early value.

As you would've seen in my previous blog entry below, there was some serious value to be had, and as a result some of this value has been slashed slightly because everyone has been making the most of it. Good work lads! The most notable changes include:

Boak: WAS $6.00 --> NOW $4.00.

Green: WAS $5.50 --> NOW $3.

Brown: WAS $1.60 --> NOW $1.55.
Thompson: WAS $1.40 --> NOW $1.35

Brown: WAS $1.60 --> NOW $1.55

Watson: WAS $1.65 --> NOW $1.60

Boyd: WAS $4.50 --> NOW $4.00

I've taken it a little easier today, analysing my different combinations and trying to cover myself as much as I could for those teams that I think have only 2 players that could win their teams most votes. Below I shall give my thoughts on each of the teams; who am I entrusting to be my 'locks/anchors'; who offers value; which are the teams where the winner can be narrowed down to 2 players?

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Adelaide:

THOMPSON Scott (ADEL) $1.35

DOUGLAS Richard (ADEL) $6.50

NOTES: I'm treating Thompson as one of my locks. However, out of those 3-4 players i'm treating as locks, Thompson is one I still hold small reservations about in regards to him being a resounding winner at Adelaide, and particularly given his direct competition in Douglas has had his best season to date and is a relative unknown at the Brownlow. I will be using Thompson in 90% or so of my multi's but will cover myself by including Douglas in a few if an upset does occur. Verdict: Thompson

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Brisbane:

BROWN Jonathan (BL)  $1.55

RISCHITELLI Michael  $17

NOTES: Brown is the second of those group of players i've classified as a lock. Like Thompson, he does have a threat - albeit quite minor - in Rischitelli who is quoted as 4th favourite behind Black and Brennan to beat Brown. In my eyes Rischitelli has the greatest chance of these players to do so, and as such, have put Rischitelli in one or two and even omitted Brown/Brisbane from a few 5/6 leg multis in case an upset occurs. But I will reiterate that the threat to me is quite small and is a lesser chance at getting toppled than Thompson, but it's better safe than sorry! Verdict: Brown.

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Carlton:

JUDD Chris (CARL) $1.02

NOTES: Juddy is as safe as houses, and his odds rightly so reflect just that. Pity his odds aren't closer to $1.05-$1.10 to at least bump some value into your combined multi odds. Biggest lock by a country mile! Verdict: Judd.

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Collingwood:

SWAN Dane (COLL) $1.18

PENDLEBURY Scott (COLL)  $4.50

NOTES: As we saw last year, many people got fooled by the allure of Swan's odds and got whacked when he ultimately got beaten by Pendlebury. I have a funny feeling that history will repeat this year, and because of this I believe Pendlebury offers very good value at $4.50. On the whole i'll be steering clear of the Collingwood market altogether as I did successfully last year, but it's worthwhile tacking Pendles onto the end of some of your multi combo's to make the most of his value if he does happen to get up. Verdict: Line-ball call. If I had to choose: Pendlebury

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Essendon:

WATSON Jobe (ESS) $1.60

WINDERLICH Jason (ESS)  $15

NOTES: Watson is my second biggest lock behind Judd. He's performed out of his skin this year in what was a very ordinary side in Essendon this year. Winderlich is still value if you happen to think that you need to cover yourself with him, so it might be worthwhile putting him as a saver in a 3 leg multi given his massive long odds. But i'm hopeful in relying on Watson to come through with the goods! Verdict: Watson.

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Fremantle:

SANDILANDS Aaron (FREM) $1.40

BARLOW Michael (FREM)  $3.25

PAVLICH Matthew (FREM)$17

NOTES: This has to be one of the hardest teams to pick, and IMO could be won by any 3 of those players listed. On the one hand I think that perhaps Barlow has done enough to win prior to getting injured, whilst Sandilands still polls well for a ruckman and there's no doubting Pavlich polling history. This is a no go zone for me. Pavlich offers rediculous odds though. Verdict: Line-ball decision. If I had to choose: Barlow.

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Geelong:

ABLETT Gary (GEEL) $1.22

SELWOOD Joel (GEEL) $6.50

BARTEL Jimmy (GEEL)$11

NOTES: If one thing is for sure you cannot afford to underestimate the great Gazza when it comes to the Brownlow. Being the reigning Brownlow medalist, there's no doubting his polling history, but if the 'post-brownlow blues' occurs and Ablett doesn't poll as expected, then i'd say Selwood will be the next in line to top the votes down at Geelong. I'll be steering clear of Geelong, but perhaps add Selwood into 1-2 multis for the value alone. Verdict: No go zone. If I had to choose: Ablett.

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Hawthorn:

HODGE Luke (HAW) $1.15

MITCHELL Sam (HAW)  $13

NOTES: Given his steller year, you'd imagine Hodge is a shoe in to take out most votes at Hawks. I'm not so sure. Whilst I too think he'll win it confortably - and even finish in the top 5 for the Brownlow - there is a part of me that says he's just not worth the risk including him in your multis given his very short odds. His polling history isn't too favourable, and given this think I will pass on him. Verdict: Hodge.

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Melbourne:

GREEN Brad (MELB) $3

SYLVIA Colin (MELB)  $4

NOTES: This is one of those teams where the winner can be narrowed down to 2 players. Furthermore, this is the one that offers the most value given the are both $3 and $4, so if you alternate them in your multis, you'll still come out on top. I believe the winner will come from these 2 players, but cannot split them. Verdict: Sylvia... JUST!

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North Melbourne:

HARVEY Brent (NM) $1.40

SWALLOW Andrew (NM) $4.00

NOTES: This is yet another team where the winner can be narrowed down to 2 players. Whilst they don't offer as much value as that of Green/Sylvia, Swallow is a big show at knocking off Harvey and at $4.00 he's worth a shot. Thus, it's worthwhile alternating them in your multis for cover. Verdict: Swallow... JUST!


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Port Adelaide:

CASSISI Domenic (PORT)  $2.50
BOAK Travis (PORT) $4.50

NOTES: Like the previous two teams, here is another one that can be narrowed down to 2. Boak has smashed it this year and led from the front, whilst Cassisi has had a very solid year also. For me, Boak played a better contested game than Cassisi, and given the latters poor polling history, Boak gets the nod for me by a few votes. Verdict: Boak.

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Richmond:

RIEWOLDT Jack (RICH) $1.90

DELEDIO Brett (RICH)  $2.75

NOTES: This is another no-go zone for me. Anything can happen, and anyone can win. Can you trust a KPP forward who has had his first breakout season and no real polling history to go by, or someone who didn't poll as close to what people expected he would last year. All these variables to consider, with no real value means it's a pass for me. Verdict: If I had to choose: Deledio by 1 vote.

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St. Kilda:

GODDARD Brendon (STK) $2.25

HAYES Lenny (STK) $2.75

MONTAGNA Leigh (STK) $4.00

DAL SANTO Nick (STK) $15

NOTES: Remember how I said Freo was the hardest team to predict for 'most team votes'... well scratch that because I completely forgot about St. Kilda! Whilst I personally think Hayes will win it for the Saints, it could turn out closer than I think and am not confident enough to use him in a lot of my multis. Verdict: Hayes.

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Sydney:

GOODES Adam (SYD) $1.35

JACK Kieran (SYD) $7

NOTES: Very confident these 2 players will slug it out for the honours. Goodes has an awesome polling history backing him, whilst Jack is the new kid on the block that smashed the competition with a handful of BOG performances in the last quarter of the season. At odds of $7, Jack is worth a flutter and is every chance at knocking off Goodes if the umps happen to mark his game harder. Goodes should take it out if history is anything to go by, but in no way am I using him as an anchor/lock like I have in the past. Verdict: Goodes.

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Western Bulldogs:

COONEY Adam (WBDG) $2.50

BOYD Matthew (WBDG) $4.00

NOTES: Boyd and Coondog should be going head-to-head, and it should be a tight battle. Coin toss here, however I have a better feeling about Boyd moreso than Cooney, but will be using both in various multis. Verdict: Boyd.

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West Coast:

PRIDDIS Matt (WCE) $1.45

LECRAS Mark (WCE)  $3.50

NOTES: Never trust the team that finishes last. We saw what happened last year at Richmond when Richo won ahead of the favourite in Deledio in what was one of the biggest shocks at the Brownlow of 09. Too many things can go wrong, and all it takes is for one player to miss polling in a game that they were expected to and they could lose. Verdict: Priddis.